[NL20-NL50] FR25 ZOOM 33 gutshot IP

    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      PokerStars - $0.25 NL ZOOM - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: $9.85
      SB: $82.59
      BB: $52.72
      UTG: $16.24
      UTG+1: $25.94
      UTG+2: $25.15
      Hero (MP): $35.90
      MP+1: $34.78
      CO: $26.02

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 3:club: 3:diamond:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.75, fold, Hero calls $0.75, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.75, fold, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($3.10, 4 players) A:club: 4:spade: 5:diamond:
      BB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.75, Hero...?

      villain is 35/18 player over 200 hands.
      cbet 7/10, turn cbet 3/4, folds to float 2/4

      i think that he does these very small bets with hands that he perceive to be strong (one hand read)
      can it be possible to chase my gs?

      btn is unknown (fish?), bb seems like weak regular
  • 5 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      I think you just can´t call to hit your gutshot or set, but in general floating should be fine (I would then bet on the turn if he checks to me)- people would usually not expect you to float on Axxr board, so they should c/f turn their KK-TT

      best regards,
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      would also like veriz opinion :P

      i think that he's pretty strong here, AND he's not good so he may pay me off something even on 4-straight
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Tomaloc,

      Just fold it. Try calculating the implied odds you need on the turn. :P They pretty huge.

      Best Regards.
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      i assume his range to be pretty strong:

      Board: A:club: 5:diamond: 4:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    21.39%  20.99%   0.40% { 3d3c }
      UTG+2  78.61%  78.21%   0.40% { AA, 55-44, AKs, AKo }

      he bets so small :P we need like 75/385 which is ~20%...?
      but let's say that he's going to follow with a huge turn bet. then our "one card equity" should be ~10% something

      then... EV = -0.75*0.9 + 3.85*0.1?
      that gives -0.29 only

      other factors:
      + position on him
      + possible btn fish may help our implieds
      - would suck to be c/r'd by bb

      all things considered it doesn't seem like a huge ---EV call for me, actually it seems fine :P
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Tomaloc
      i assume his range to be pretty strong:

      Board: A:club: 5:diamond: 4:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    21.39%  20.99%   0.40% { 3d3c }
      UTG+2  78.61%  78.21%   0.40% { AA, 55-44, AKs, AKo }

      he bets so small :P we need like 75/385 which is ~20%...?
      but let's say that he's going to follow with a huge turn bet. then our "one card equity" should be ~10% something

      then... EV = -0.75*0.9 + 3.85*0.1?
      that gives -0.29 only

      other factors:
      + position on him
      + possible btn fish may help our implieds
      - would suck to be c/r'd by bb

      all things considered it doesn't seem like a huge ---EV call for me, actually it seems fine :P
      Try calculating implied odds, 10x easier to get the understanding. I am going to make it easy for you. :D

      We assume only GS is clean cause he might not pay when 3 comes. We need ~$4,40 on the turn. Do you think you get it? ;)