Are Pot Odds Correct?

    • SuicideKing
      Joined: 07.06.2008 Posts: 3
      I never really understood pot odds 100% but understand that if you play the correct odds over time you will win money. I believe that odds on the flop are incorrect as you likely will be raised on the turn.

      For example in a 1/2 NL FR Game,
      Say you have A :diamond: 5 :diamond: in late position and everybody limps and the small blind completes. There is now 20 in the pot and the flop comes K:heart: K :diamond: 6 :diamond: and the first person to act bets 10 everyone else folds and its your turn to act, by calling this you would need >20% of hitting your outs for it to be profitable. You have 9 outs in the deck so roughly a 36% chance of hitting it. BUT you have a good idea that your opponent will raise you again on the turn. The turn comes as 2:club: and the pot is 40. Your opponent know raises 20 and you have the pot odds of 25%. You have the odds of making the flush at roughly 18%(all diamonds except 2 since will most likely make opponents full house). So it is wrong to call here.

      But does that mean the call on the flop was wrong because you are almost certain he is going to raise again. What I mean is should we not discount that there are 2 cards to come on the flop but think of it as 1?

      Hope you can understand what I mean.
  • 1 reply
    • chenny8888
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324

      you should base pot odds on the chances of your needed card (in this case, a diamond) falling on the next street (in this case, the turn). then recalculate on the turn, with regard to his next bet size.

      using 36% is only if you are put all-in on the flop, and have the chance to see both cards (turn and river) without paying more.

      by the way, if he's always betting the turn, you also have to factor in implied odds, when you hit your flush :) .