[NL2-NL10] NL4 - AK vs loose limper in position

    • pyropove
      pyropove
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.07.2011 Posts: 36
      PKR, $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 10 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $4.36 (109 bb)
      SB: $1.38 (34.5 bb)
      BB: $7.57 (189.3 bb)
      UTG: $5.57 (139.3 bb)
      UTG+1: $4.94 (123.5 bb)
      UTG+2: $1.74 (43.5 bb)
      MP1: $8.81 (220.3 bb)
      Hero (MP2): $4.10 (102.5 bb)
      MP3: $2.25 (56.3 bb)
      CO: $4.12 (103 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A K
      UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.04, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.20, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.16

      Flop: ($0.46) 8 Q 3 (2 players)
      UTG+1 bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

      Turn: ($1.66) J (2 players)
      UTG+1 bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

      River: ($4.66) 5 (2 players)
      UTG+1 bets $2.64, Hero calls $1.80 and is all-in

      Results:
      $8.26 pot ($0.82 rake)
      Final Board: 8 Q 3 J 5
      UTG+1 showed 8 9 and lost (-$4.10 net)
      Hero showed A K and won $7.44 ($3.34 net)


      Villain's stats after 9 hands: 56/44/6.0/50.0

      Given his very wide range, on this board I was thinking I have more equity, even if he hits a pair. His preflop donk overbet didn't scare me much so I just decide to call as to not scare him away and to see the turn. Then he bets near potsize on the turn on a card that gave me additional outs. At this point I was worried about him flopping a flush, but most of the time, despite having a very limited read on him, I thought he could easily be doing this with air, especially with his very high bet sizing.

      Would I usually be right in thinking this, or is just folding to his overbet on this flop the best way, given I only had stats of his 9 previous hands?
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