Hand Analysis [AKs]

    • kiromanAAKK
      kiromanAAKK
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      Dear Friends, while it seem that I finally learned and understood (at least almost btw) when it is the case to fold, call or raise at the table, unfortunately, things aren't going so well away from the tables and what I specific mean, I suck when come the time to analyze my game!

      So, if some good soul would like to give me an hand, it will be more than simple appreciate, TY! :)

      OK, here we are with our hand played

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($2)
      BB ($2.04)
      UTG ($2.47)
      UTG+1 ($2.05)
      UTG+2 ($1.84)
      MP1 ($0.96)
      MP2 ($1.06)
      CO ($2.25)
      BTN ($0.99)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: K:diamond:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.12, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, fold

      FLOP ($0.28) A:club: J:heart: 3:spade:

      Hero bets $0.21, UTG+1 calls $0.21

      TURN ($0.70) A:club: J:heart: 3:spade: 2:spade:

      Hero bets $0.52, UTG+1 calls $0.52

      RIVER ($1.74) A:club: J:heart: 3:spade: 2:spade: 4:heart:

      Hero bets $0.87, UTG+1 raises to $1.20 (AI), Hero calls $0.28 (AI)

      VPIP: 33
      PFR: 0
      AF: 0.3
      WTSD: 60
      FCB: 0
      FvFCB: 0
      3Bet: -
      Hands: 16

      and here come the analysis

      30% => JJ-22, AQs-A2s, AQo-A2o, KTs+, KTo+, QTs+, QTo+, J9s+, JTo, T9s, T9o, 98s, 98o, 87s, 87o, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s

      Flop

      Hands we beat:

      AQs, A9s-A8s, A6s-A2s, AQo, A9o-A8o, A6o-A2o, KQs, KQo, 65s, 54s, 43s

      Hands we lose:

      JJ, 33, AJs, AJo

      Board: Ac Jh 3s
      Vs Hero Cards: Ad Kd

      Combinations in complete range: 277 [Hero Eq: 83.15%]


      Group 1: 85 combos, 87.6% (30.7% total) [Hero Eq: 81.32%]
      Group 2: 12 combos, 12.4% (4.3% total) [Hero Eq: 9.06%]

      Group 1: Hand equal or worse than hero

      AQs, A9s-A8s, A6s-A2s, AQo, A9o-A8o, A6o-A2o, KQs, KQo, 65s, 54s, 43s

      Group 2: Hand equal or better than hero

      JJ, 33, AJs, AJo


      Hands want calls:

      JJ-22, AQs-A2s, AQo-A2o, KJs+, KJo+, QJs, QJo, J9s+, JTo, 65s, 54s, 43s

      equity hero vs villain range 79.9%

      Turn

      Board: Ac Jh 3s 2s
      Vs Hero Cards: Ad Kd

      Combinations in complete range: 192 [Hero Eq: 76.20%]

      Grouped: 192 combos, 100.0% [Hero Eq: 76.20%]
      Ungrouped: 0 combos, 0.0% [Hero Eq: 0.0%]

      Group 1: 161 combos, 83.9% (83.9% total) [Hero Eq: 89.36%]
      Group 2: 31 combos, 16.1% (16.1% total) [Hero Eq: 7.84%]

      Group 1: Hand equal or worse than hero

      TT-44, AQs, ATs-A4s, AQo, ATo-A4o, KJs+, KJo+, QJs, QJo, J9s+, JTo, 65s, 43s

      Group 2: Hand equal or better than hero

      JJ, 33-22, AJs, A3s-A2s, AJo, A3o-A2o, 54s

      River

      Board: Ac Jh 3s 2s 4h
      Vs Hero Cards: Ad Kd

      Combinations in complete range: 185 [Hero Eq: 68.11%]

      Grouped: 185 combos, 100.0% [Hero Eq: 68.11%]
      Ungrouped: 0 combos, 0.0% [Hero Eq: 0.0%]

      Group 1: 155 combos, 83.8% (83.8% total) [Hero Eq: 81.29%]
      Group 2: 30 combos, 16.2% (16.2% total) [Hero Eq: 0.00%]

      Group 1: Hand equal or worse than hero

      TT-44, AQs, ATs-A4s, AQo, ATo-A4o, KJs+, KJo+, QJs, QJo, J9s+, JTo, 65s, 43s

      Group 2: Hand equal or better than hero

      JJ, 33-22, AJs, A3s-A2s, AJo, A3o-A2o, 54s

      As showed there are still far more combos in the group 1 than the group 2 where Hero is better, so, I should come to a conclusion based on that analysis that we should call and play the hand against villain to the end!

      Now, after my analysis, can some1 pls tell me what I did right and what I did wrong in my analysis?
      If I made mistake, how I should conduct an accurate hand review analysis?

      TYVM :)
  • 2 replies
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      If your bet/calling the river why don't you just shove at put the extra 14bb in?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      you are overthinking this simple spot

      Preflop: obviously raising AK for value and isolation
      Flop: obviously cbetting flop with TPTK
      Turn: same as Flop
      River: Are you getting called by 2 or more worse Aces (A9, AT etc?) If yes then shove. He doesn't have too many 5X in his range and I see no reason to believe he has sets all that often.

      You lose to:
      AJ (6 combos?) maybe you want to discount AJ to some extent cos he should raise a lot of the time
      A5s (2 combos)
      A5o? Does he limp/call A5o preflop? when you made such a huge raise?
      33 (3 combos)
      45s (3 combos)
      So you are losing to perhaps 10-15 combos

      Do you think he calls you with enough worse Aces? If you think he has AT and A9 which will call the river, then go ahead and shove (16 combos of worse calling hands at the very least).