[NL2-NL10] SH NL10 AJ against whale

    • MoneyStef
      MoneyStef
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.01.2011 Posts: 1,501
      Hi,

      Villain is 73-12, AF2, Fold to Cbet flop 55% on 42 hands.
      On the turn I put his range on straights, 2 pairs, maybe sets, maybe just Ax because a fish could see this as the nuts. Should I give more respect to his raise on the turn? Play bet-broke/fold there rather than call?

      Thanks





      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($2.90)
      BB ($11.51)
      Hero ($18.63)
      CO ($10.52)
      BTN ($8.46)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: J:club:

      Hero raises to $0.30, fold, BTN calls $0.30, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.75) T:spade: 9:spade: J:diamond:

      Hero bets $0.60, BTN calls $0.60

      TURN ($1.95) T:spade: 9:spade: J:diamond: A:club:

      Hero bets $1.60, BTN raises to $3.20, Hero calls $1.60

      RIVER ($8.35) T:spade: 9:spade: J:diamond: A:club: 9:diamond:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $4.17, Hero calls $4.17
  • 7 replies
    • Ickki
      Ickki
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.11.2010 Posts: 962
      Minraise on the turn is almost never a bluff. I'd bet/fold the turn.

      As played, what hands do you think he'll be shoving the river, and which of those do you think you beat?
    • MoneyStef
      MoneyStef
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.01.2011 Posts: 1,501
      Well, on the turn I think his range consists of KQ, 87 straights, possibly sets, 2 pair (AT, A9, AJ) and Ax combo's and T9 which might seem like a re raising hand to this guy (remember that an AF of 2 is actually very high considering that with a VPIP of 75 you rarely really hit the board). So I am almost dead against his straights and sets, and do well against his Ax combo's. Of course, the real error in this hand could be me not giving a realistic range to villain :) . I still believe that against a player with these kind of stats, you cannot just assume that this raise is always the nuts, but I'm of course interested to see how the others and the judge think about this.
    • Vip3rNZ
      Vip3rNZ
      Silver
      Joined: 11.11.2011 Posts: 340
      I'd shove over his min-raise on the turn against this player, you crush so much of his range of smaller 2 pair, combo draws, AK, AQ ( interested to know his 3bet stat, if any, or hands you saw them 3bet) and if you have higher 2 pair or are up against some kind of combo draw then you want to protect your hand from a fullhouse, flush or straight coming in on the river and having a tough decision.

      I also dont think he is ever folding a decent draw here like AQ to this player is the nuts I think.

      Interested to see what the judge says! :)
    • MoneyStef
      MoneyStef
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.01.2011 Posts: 1,501
      Hi,

      Yes indeed 3bet stats are relevant here to check if AQ/AK. He did 3bet once on 14 hands, did not see what he had...
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello MoneyStef,

      Turn: Well, then I ask you why do you Call the turn then? What's the purpose if you think you are ahead you should be just shoving the turn and maybe even protecting your hand.

      As played
      River: Well, now even a lot of 2pairs make FH. :) So there ain't many hands what you beat anymore.

      Best Regards.
    • MoneyStef
      MoneyStef
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.01.2011 Posts: 1,501
      Hi Veriz,

      Thanks for your reply. I call the turn to keep Ax and weaker 2 pairs in his range, although you are right that he would probably not fold them anymore.

      Do you generally think that I was correct in determining his range on the turn (including Ax and weaker 2 pairs), or is this probably exclusively a nuts hand in your experience (even though villain is extremely fishy and not really passive)?

      Thanks
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by MoneyStef
      Hi Veriz,

      Thanks for your reply. I call the turn to keep Ax and weaker 2 pairs in his range, although you are right that he would probably not fold them anymore.

      Do you generally think that I was correct in determining his range on the turn (including Ax and weaker 2 pairs), or is this probably exclusively a nuts hand in your experience (even though villain is extremely fishy and not really passive)?

      Thanks
      As long he is so loose there can be everything in his range. Although the question is if he still raises with Ax there. :) What we should mainly base on how aggressive/passive he is. Those loose guys often times play passively their TP hands, so you have to watch out.