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Calculating expected value of an all-in in HU HYPERTURBO

    • petersveter
      petersveter
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.10.2011 Posts: 339
      Hey. It's the first hand of the heads up hyperturbo. We both have 500 chips. I have A3o and I am on the BB. The SB raises to 100. I go all-in.

      What is the expected value of an all-in? (If I am right, we are calculating the CHIP EV, as it is the same as cash game right?)

      So first I expect him to call me with smthng like A6o+, A5s+, KQo, KQs, KJs, 55+.
      Vs this range I had aprox. 33 %equity.
      I expect him to fold 10 % of the time.

      So I have to calculate the average value I gain when he a) folds b)calls and I lose c) calls and I win and than sum it up right?

      So the equation will be smthng like this? 10% x 100 CHIPS (when he folds) - 67% x 90% x 500 CHIPS (when he calls and I lose) + 33% x 90% x 500 CHIPS (when he calls and I win= expected value of smthng. like -120 CHIPS ?

      Because I was watching one video, where the coach was saying that he really liked the all in against the unknown in the first hand, and I was like wtf. I just want to know how to calculate this myself. Thanks Cheers
  • 6 replies
    • petersveter
      petersveter
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.10.2011 Posts: 339
      please someone help me, im hopeless :f_cry:
    • Leito99
      Leito99
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2009 Posts: 754
      that's the correct formula except that he wouldn't only fold 10% of the time.. he would fold much more

      assumming the following ranges, which would be standard for many regs, opening 75% and calling a shove 15%, it would mean that he is folding 80% of the time and not 10% as you said in your calculations
    • petersveter
      petersveter
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.10.2011 Posts: 339
      Yeah but its not a reg cause he's opening 100 chips on the first hand. It's obviously a crazy fish. And a crazy fish that opens t100 out of t500 that he has behind just wants to gamble in my opinion. So I think he is folding max. 20 %.

      Or am I being too pessimistic?
    • daun666
      daun666
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 540
      Just fold, at beast its really marginaly +ev, if he opens 5x first hand = fish, you will have later spots to to get max +ev.

      Also imo most likely its -ev, vs connected offsuit hands you are around 40:60 fav, vs connected suited 50:50 and a ton of his range dominates you 70:30 + i have seen people 4x fold but not 5x fold so fold equity is very very low, Im sure someone is able to 5x fold :D
    • CollinMoshman
      CollinMoshman
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 20.09.2011 Posts: 516
      Assuming the big blind is $20, Villain opens top 40% and calls top 20%, your EV would be:

      50% x $120 + 50% x (-480 + 42% x $1000)

      I.e. 50% he folds (given my simplified assumptions above of a 40% open and 20% call, feel free to change accordingly) and you win his $100 open + your $20 blind as we're calculating EV relative to folding, and 50% he calls in which case you are paying 480 to get back the 42% equity (that A3o has against a range of top 20%) in a $1000 pot.
    • petersveter
      petersveter
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.10.2011 Posts: 339
      Oh thanks collin. Thats a simplified method of what I wrote right? But my method is more natural for me, it comes to me without thinking about a way of calculating it.

      So according to you Collin it is a +t30 EV push right? But isn't it a bit too optimistic to say that he folds 50% of the time?