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[NL2-NL10] NL10 Good bluff raising spot on the river or it is just me?

    • Deomedes
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 156
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
      SB: $2.60
      BB: $10.00
      UTG: $10.84
      Hero (CO): $14.11
      BTN: $15.91

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has Q :spade: T :spade:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.40, BTN calls $0.40, fold, fold

      Flop: ($0.95, 2 players) 5 :club: 4 :spade: 9 :spade:
      Hero bets $0.50, BTN raises to $1.30, Hero calls $0.80

      Turn: ($3.55, 2 players) K :diamond:
      Hero checks, BTN bets $2.20, Hero calls $2.20

      River: ($7.95, 2 players) 7 :diamond:
      Hero checks, BTN bets $3.30, Hero raises to $10.21 and is all-in, fold

      Hero wins $13.83

      So story goes like this. I open QTs from CO which is pretty standard as a steal attempt. I know the guy behind me is aggressive and i have to narrow my range but the big blind is a pretty loose player preflop as well as postflop. Unforunately, i get called by BTN and bb folds.

      On the flop i have Flush draw and i make a standard cbet. BTN raises me rather small which is not unxepted because he likes to attack anyones cbets with raises (he has 77% flop aggression frequency, 11 flop aggression factor). I think he can have anything from strong hands that plays them the same way as draws . I do not exclude pure bluffs and overcards cause he might want to exploit me in a flop that doesn't hit my range well but does well on his.

      My hand has decent equity to call since my FD is not much dominated. Most suited Aces and Kings with broadways would have 3bet me preflop (3bet 10% in 650 hands). Stacks are deep also (though out of position implied odds are smaller) so I call.

      On the turn my equity doesn't change much, i get three more outs but a King is in his range of raising on the flop. He bets and i make a rather loose and stubborn call with only hope to hit.

      The river is a blank for me. I curse myself for calling the turn bet and i give up.
      But he decides to bet. And he bets weak I think, he bets less than half pot saying that he wants to get paid with his strong hand (like a set of 99) by draws that caught a pair , two pairs, stubborn overpairs etc. Or that he has a rather weak holding and he bluffs weak.

      I go for the second, thinking that a weak raise on a drawy flop and a weak river bet along with his aggressive tendencies are enough reads for me to try to exploit them and i shove.

      My question now is this : are these reads really good enough for a move like that one or i just got lucky to face the bluffs on his range ? Will i be more or less than 50% good vs an opponent like him in that spot so as to make my move profitable ?

      PS: I had also induced some hands before a bluff from him by checking back a turn King with KQ on a dry board, he bet pot on the river and i called. If that adds something to this hand.
  • 2 replies
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Deomedes,

      Well, but I am asking you. What are you representing there? You can't represent anything with your play ever. Any stronger hand would get it in earlier. So I don't like your play at all, you don't have the implied odds on the turn, especially if you assume he has a wide bluffing range.

      Best Regards.
    • Deomedes
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 156
      In the above hand i did not ask myself "is there a good time to represent..." i asked "is there a good time to attack a likely weak range". Anytime is good for that. So instead of criticizing my play for not being able to represent a hand in this spot i would expect finding flaws on my core of thinking. Are these reads i mentioned above likely signs of weakness or i just made some excuse to try to take the pot.

      I 've never found any problem with that in NL10, Veriz. It might sound weird but i do not think too much of it vs every opponent. In these stakes i have to see a guy folding Top pair good kicker ,and not in a soaking wet board ofcourse, to respect him, and mostly nit-regs do that here.

      But even when i see a nit who loves his money, not the ones who will check-call all the way after betting the flop with Top pair Top kicker thinking everyone's bluffing, i just bet and bet big. They fold. I don't think they say wha't the odds of him getting two pairs with T on the flop and 6 on the turn or that the odds are slim to hit a set of sixes on the turn or any set on the flop, they just fold.

      Same i think applies here. A guy has a wide range attacking liberally and i want to be tricky, turning my hands into bluffs versus his aggressve plays. I check-raise tons of overcards or second pairs on flops he 3 bet me. I like tag play in the micros ,though it come to me naturally to be a Lag i think there is not much room for it there, but sometimes i feel we are overdoing it.

      So let's say for example the so much advisable 4bet or fold only when out of position play for me it is very weak sometimes. When the guy is 3betting 9% or more I will call with my AK and check-shove cbets in almost any flop. If flop comes to be A or K high i call flop to stack-off on the turn. What i represent? Well what do they have ?

      So like anyone, i spotted a likely weakness in the betting size and i tried to use my stack to exploit it. I am sure that the Lag-fish will curse the time he got himself in situations like that and think twice about being aggressive to me again.

      My line doesn't make sense ? Why do you think they think that, some people do not charge draws and wait for them no to hit, others trap. Better hands would have get it in earlier? I do not think so...

      PartyGaming - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      Hero (SB): $13.28
      BB: $21.47
      UTG: $10.00
      MP: $10.00
      CO: $19.26
      BTN: $15.21

      Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has K:diamond: K:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.80, Hero raises to $3.00, fold, BTN calls $2.20

      Flop: ($6.10, 2 players) 6:spade: J:diamond: J:club:
      Hero bets $2.00, BTN calls $2.00

      Turn: ($10.10, 2 players) 7:diamond:
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      River: ($10.10, 2 players) 9:heart:
      Hero checks, BTN bets $4.80, Hero raises to $8.28 and is all-in, BTN calls $3.48

      BTN shows 5:heart: 5:club: (Two Pair, Jacks and Fives) (Pre 20%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)
      Hero shows K:diamond: K:spade: (Two Pair, Kings and Jacks) (Pre 80%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)
      Hero wins $25.66

      like here what your advise would be? Bet, bet, bet. Yes, ok , but i know he is a Lag-fish, doubter. I know with the little intense history we got that he will bet and feel commited to call because he is doubting a lot. I give him reason to doubt, didn't I?

      Other lag fish , doubter with HEAVY history beween us same thing here

      PartyGaming - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BTN: $10.00
      SB: $10.00
      BB: $10.00
      Hero (UTG): $10.17
      MP: $19.20
      CO: $6.54

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has K:diamond: A:diamond:

      Hero raises to $0.40, fold, CO calls $0.40, BTN raises to $2.00, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.60, fold

      Flop: ($4.55, 2 players) 8:club: K:club: 8:diamond:
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      Turn: ($4.55, 2 players) 8:heart:
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      River: ($4.55, 2 players) T:spade:
      Hero checks, BTN bets $2.20, Hero raises to $8.17 and is all-in, BTN calls $5.80 and is all-in

      BTN shows J:diamond: J:club: (Full House, Eights full of Jacks) (Pre 54%, Flop 13%, Turn 5%)
      Hero shows K:diamond: A:diamond: (Full House, Eights full of Kings) (Pre 46%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)
      Hero wins $19.55

      How i got paid? Thinking not how a Forum Tag perceives my range but how a LAG- Fish does.

      I know it is best for you guys to advise us to stick to the basics but we never speak about the flow of the game or other meta game factors here and i think are equally important.

      Sorry for being defiant, best regards.