[NL20-NL50] NL50 deep tough spot

    • lilprincess
      lilprincess
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.05.2008 Posts: 2,549
      no reads, stats 3/3/inf on 33 hands so not really useful

      Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
      LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

      BB: $51.65
      UTG: $67.05
      Hero (CO): $100.50
      BTN: $116.45
      SB: $51.70

      Pre-Flop: dealt to Hero (CO)
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, 2 folds

      Flop: ($4.25) (2 Players)
      Hero bets $3, BTN calls $3

      Turn: ($10.25) (2 Players)
      Hero bets $7, BTN raises to $25, Hero ??

      Results: $24.25 Pot ($1.20 Rake)
      BTN mucked and WON $23.05 (+$11.30 NET)
  • 14 replies
    • srohack
      srohack
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 1,908
      even its just 33 hands playing just 3 % seems realy tight . do you think he is able to raise here anything else then a flush ? if i was in his spot and i would turn 2 pair with a hand like 10 j i wouldnt raise there . i think he would raise 87 or any set on the flop so i doubt he is turning his hand into a bluff here . maybe it is week but i incline to fold
    • lilprincess
      lilprincess
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.05.2008 Posts: 2,549
      that's exactly what i thought and what i did

      anyone thinks its bad ?
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      With 3% it is hard to imagine what he might have called with, except AK clubs or AA with the club, that he would then play this way.

      With no money in, and both very deep, I think fold will cost you least in the long run.
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Well, with so few hands, you have to adjust his stats.
      He played his 2nd now, thus so far he played 6/3

      You know little to nothing about his postflop play, so don't let tightness preflop scare you postflop. Players at this limit who play very, very few hands often can't let go of their hands once they start putting money in (very profitable exploit in their playing style). He appeared to have won his previous hand though and he did play some before (else he would have had a maximum of 100 $) so that's another reason to relativize that 3/3 statistic)

      I wouldn't consider it a mistake to fold here this time around, however, this is very exploitable. Again, his preflop play says nothing about his postflop play.
      The possible flushes he might have is AK, AQ and KQ, with AK being dismissable as he didn't raise preflop (normally AQs and KQs are a reraise too, but you never know). His postflop play of calling the flop and raising the turn is indicative of a flush, however, it's just as often a float or a bad move by a tight player who's got his set of 6, 9, T or J and didn't want to scare you away on the flop and now was cursing because a flush might have hit (he didn't see the straight), and tries something called delayed protection. Personally, I would have gone with it...
      Being doublestacked it's a bit tougher, but still ... however, with only 10 $ invested, a fold isn't wrong either. Perhaps even better ... we'll never know I suppose :)
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Board is very nice to bluff. I guess it is fine to get all-in with straight on that board, so I´d shove and hope he would call straight/two pair/set or even pair/draw.
    • srohack
      srohack
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 1,908
      check his stats kaitz ...
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      its just so hard to figure out our equity and FE on such board
      he could get ton of combos to play like that
      i doubt he slowplays a lot, so we should be up against
      a) made flush
      b) lower str8
      c) combo
      d) air

      but there us just so few info to judge it. his stats tell absolutely nothing
      obv, he is not a maniac, but its not enough info)
      for that reasons, i would play it passively as it feels more like gambling to me

      -> fold and wait for a better spot, imo
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      actually, forget about what i wrote
      the guy is definitely raising top 3% and likely even more

      so if its a flush, it should be small sc 78, 54, 34, 32
      i think there is a slight chance that he is folding the smallest to our brave shove)
      it is definitely slim, but 90/42 are pretty descent bluff odds
      he can definitely fold some of the weaker combos
      and pays off some of his made hands

      since there only 4 flush combos possible and the plenty of others
      i think pushing should be good here
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think that 33 hands is a few less that make assemtions and even if he played 3/3 then he woudl probably call with pp than suited cards.
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      he would call both.
      but i doubt he would turn his pp into a turn bluff
    • timukasr
      timukasr
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.05.2007 Posts: 1,820
      Insta call imo, villain trys to slowplay set and now is scared of flushes, straights.
    • lilprincess
      lilprincess
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.05.2008 Posts: 2,549
      Originally posted by timukasr
      Insta call imo, villain trys to slowplay set and now is scared of flushes, straights.
      why would he raise if he's scared ? he's only getting called by better hands
    • Gungunhana
      Gungunhana
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.02.2007 Posts: 429
      33 hds is insignificant as stats go but show a tendency. He looks tight so the chances are that he is calling with something like 99+, AQ+. I´d shove.
      Dont want to see another club on river
    • timukasr
      timukasr
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.05.2007 Posts: 1,820
      Originally posted by lilprincess
      Originally posted by timukasr
      Insta call imo, villain trys to slowplay set and now is scared of flushes, straights.
      why would he raise if he's scared ? he's only getting called by better hands
      Maybe he didn't realize that the flush was so big of a problem before seeing the third flush card :D . Also when you have a set you still have 10 outs of improve to FH.

      About the hand. Now I think it's not so insta call :D , I'd think a bit and then call because:

      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      I think that 33 hands is a few less that make assemtions and even if he played 3/3 then he would probably call with pp than suited cards.