This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

Balance fold top set - min set

    • martinemem
      martinemem
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 610
      $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      Hero (MP+1): $2.02
      CO: $1.31
      BTN: $1.14
      SB: $7.15
      BB: $6.17
      UTG: $0.50
      UTG+1: $2.16
      MP: $3.36

      SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

      Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has 8:club: 8:diamond:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, fold, Hero calls $0.02, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.08, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.06, Hero calls $0.06

      Flop: ($0.26, 3 players) 3:spade: 8:spade: 5:club:
      SB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.26, Hero calls $0.26, fold

      Turn: ($0.78, 2 players) Q:spade:
      UTG+1 bets $0.78, Hero calls $0.78

      River: ($2.34, 2 players) 7:spade:
      UTG+1 bets $1.04, Hero calls $0.90

      How often can i fold a set to a 4 card flush?
      Is it possible to explain with a math equation?
      Though i know when people like or dislike suited cards, i just want to erase that and calculate out the probability that he has a flush.
      How does the equation differ when its a mid set or min set?
      How does the quation differ when the last flush card on river is either K or A? (Thinking of overpairs)

      I'm thinking now that the most common aswer is, get it in on flop. However low varianse is sometimes a more relaxing choice :D
      He could also have TT-AA with a spade to the flush
      so 2nd q:
      How often can villain fold to a check shove on turn with TT-AA (1 spade) or 33, 55
      Im right to say that he never folds set to checkshove, even though i never do this as a bluff?

      And how does this change the equation if he's never 3rd barrel as a bluff? (nit reg)

      And i am right saying that the fold is more often the best option when over 200bb ?
  • 12 replies
    • martinemem
      martinemem
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 610
      He did though turn his hand upside down ;D

      So i thought either 33 or 55

      Another Q:

      How does the fold balance change if the flop is mono, and turn is 4th card to flush?
    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,268
      Originally posted by martinemem

      I'm thinking now that the most common aswer is, get it in on flop. However low varianse is sometimes a more relaxing choice :D
      ?
      Raise the flop, his line looks strong so he should have a strong hand, if he doesnt hes not going to pay us anyway. also raise to protect against flush draws. player behind also gets good odds to call with a FD.

      Q:
      would you rather get it in on the flop knowing you have the nuts?
      OR
      call strong bets on the turn/river when the FD completes?

      Also, if he has a flush draw, he would be more happy to get it in on the flop where his equity is higher.
    • SryImNoob
      SryImNoob
      Silver
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 4,687
      Why did you limp a pp?
      Why didn't u raide That flop?
      Why didn't u go broke on That turn^^?
    • martinemem
      martinemem
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 610
      Well i was suspecting him to have a set, and he would barrel all 3 times.

      If he was a good player he folded AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 to a potbetted raise

      To the question u mentioned, i would rather reconcider and call the flush down. But thats because i know who is playing suited and not.
      And thats because i like low varianse ;D

      Well this is a special hand, because normally i would also raise, but not a potsize bet, since he then thinks he has the best hand. :D

      Therefore i ask how often i can fold that set cleary math wise, if we were saying i was sitting with 500bb or something.
      And im talking in general, not this hand. So all set vs 4 card flush.
    • Lindberg789
      Lindberg789
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.04.2009 Posts: 314
      Originally posted by martinemem
      Well i was suspecting him to have a set, and he would barrel all 3 times.

      If he was a good player he folded AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 to a potbetted raise

      To the question u mentioned, i would rather reconcider and call the flush down. But thats because i know who is playing suited and not.
      And thats because i like low varianse ;D

      Well this is a special hand, because normally i would also raise, but not a potsize bet, since he then thinks he has the best hand. :D

      Therefore i ask how often i can fold that set cleary math wise, if we were saying i was sitting with 500bb or something.
      And im talking in general, not this hand. So all set vs 4 card flush.

      U need to raise flop/turn get it in..

      U say if he is a good player he folds.. u are playing micros, aint no good players there.
      Keep it simple, get it in.
    • martinemem
      martinemem
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 610
      Why did you limp a pp?
      Why didn't u raide That flop?
      Why didn't u go broke on That turn^^?


      Im a nit :D

      A deceptive nit

      Last question, cannot answer. I thought we were both committed. Maybe stupid on the turn to not just get it in there, i guess i just HOPED there would not come another spade. When it came, he would push 100 % rivers with his stack, so i guess i could call 100% also.
    • martinemem
      martinemem
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 610
      Im trying to get better, so yes, please kick me when im lying down.

      No good players? How would you know, u are only silver?

      If u really wants to, lets compare graphs ?
      Saying nl2 there is no good players is kinda offending. SHOW ME SOMETHING that can clarify that u are better ?
      AND even think ur are in position to say if they suck or not.

      WHY do you think i would ask when i can fold sets math wise, if im suspecting someone has a better hand?
      Because im AHEAD of my limit, unlike u, that just is a stubbarn fish, saying all sucks.
    • SryImNoob
      SryImNoob
      Silver
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 4,687
      i'm not really good but here's my nl2graph



      this limit is easily crushable playing an abc game and trying to value a max ( bet bet bet with good hand)

      nl5 look the same as nl2



      but personnaly nl10 was a step in my game and mental ($$$)







      yes there's ''reg'' in nl2 nl5 nl10 but if they arent uping limit they are beatable (or like playing bad player?)

      personnaly i would say go ABC game build a bankroll and after try to adapt your style of game in higher limit (nl10-nl25)

      but its my opinion :)
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,015
      raise flop!

      turn, well sometimes fish play their FD like that. still a "damn you" ship it though, you'll see the worse sets and maybe even KK+ also

      river ?( ?( ?( as you shouldn't have been there, his pairs may have hit


      as for the gaps between limits.. imo

      playmoney ____ nl2 __ nl5 _ nl10 ___ nl25 ______ nl50
    • ClimaxingWalrus
      ClimaxingWalrus
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2010 Posts: 132
      raise pre and raise flop... people generally don't like folding after they've potted it like this and if he has like 66,77,99+ or an unlikely top pair good kicker you want to get the money in before any cards kill your action which there are a lot of (any spade/overcard) and you protect against all the draws that he probably still won't fold

      and taking a line because you think its lower variance when there is a more +EV line is essentially saying that you'll accept a lower winrate, which in turn actually increases your variance more so than taking the "higher variance" play which actually isn't higher variance at all because its more +EV and therefore your winrate is increased and you experience less variance
    • martinemem
      martinemem
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 610
      Ur right. But may i exclude the fact someone could bet pot flop with overcards?
      I know there is some that do this ;D but they are easy spotable ;D

      Well i might stop sometimes be so gently then, today i raised 3x sb with KK, to check to river to the nit that called in bb ;D



      When my 3,5bb/100 stopped peaking on the graph, was when i started reading articles to balance to get both red and blue sligtly up

      @ 13k hands i started to play 16 tables, and not table select, but only play on race tables with nits everywhere and 1fish / 12th player.
    • ClimaxingWalrus
      ClimaxingWalrus
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2010 Posts: 132
      I'm not saying he's betting pot with two overs, I'm saying that if he has a pair he'll feel much safer getting it in now before any overcard or spade comes.