Balance fold top set - min set

    • martinemem
      martinemem
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 596
      $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      Hero (MP+1): $2.02
      CO: $1.31
      BTN: $1.14
      SB: $7.15
      BB: $6.17
      UTG: $0.50
      UTG+1: $2.16
      MP: $3.36

      SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

      Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has 8:club: 8:diamond:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.02, fold, Hero calls $0.02, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.08, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.06, Hero calls $0.06

      Flop: ($0.26, 3 players) 3:spade: 8:spade: 5:club:
      SB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.26, Hero calls $0.26, fold

      Turn: ($0.78, 2 players) Q:spade:
      UTG+1 bets $0.78, Hero calls $0.78

      River: ($2.34, 2 players) 7:spade:
      UTG+1 bets $1.04, Hero calls $0.90

      How often can i fold a set to a 4 card flush?
      Is it possible to explain with a math equation?
      Though i know when people like or dislike suited cards, i just want to erase that and calculate out the probability that he has a flush.
      How does the equation differ when its a mid set or min set?
      How does the quation differ when the last flush card on river is either K or A? (Thinking of overpairs)

      I'm thinking now that the most common aswer is, get it in on flop. However low varianse is sometimes a more relaxing choice :D
      He could also have TT-AA with a spade to the flush
      so 2nd q:
      How often can villain fold to a check shove on turn with TT-AA (1 spade) or 33, 55
      Im right to say that he never folds set to checkshove, even though i never do this as a bluff?

      And how does this change the equation if he's never 3rd barrel as a bluff? (nit reg)

      And i am right saying that the fold is more often the best option when over 200bb ?
  • 12 replies
    • martinemem
      martinemem
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 596
      He did though turn his hand upside down ;D

      So i thought either 33 or 55

      Another Q:

      How does the fold balance change if the flop is mono, and turn is 4th card to flush?
    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,176
      Originally posted by martinemem

      I'm thinking now that the most common aswer is, get it in on flop. However low varianse is sometimes a more relaxing choice :D
      ?
      Raise the flop, his line looks strong so he should have a strong hand, if he doesnt hes not going to pay us anyway. also raise to protect against flush draws. player behind also gets good odds to call with a FD.

      Q:
      would you rather get it in on the flop knowing you have the nuts?
      OR
      call strong bets on the turn/river when the FD completes?

      Also, if he has a flush draw, he would be more happy to get it in on the flop where his equity is higher.
    • SryImNoob
      SryImNoob
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 4,678
      Why did you limp a pp?
      Why didn't u raide That flop?
      Why didn't u go broke on That turn^^?
    • martinemem
      martinemem
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 596
      Well i was suspecting him to have a set, and he would barrel all 3 times.

      If he was a good player he folded AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 to a potbetted raise

      To the question u mentioned, i would rather reconcider and call the flush down. But thats because i know who is playing suited and not.
      And thats because i like low varianse ;D

      Well this is a special hand, because normally i would also raise, but not a potsize bet, since he then thinks he has the best hand. :D

      Therefore i ask how often i can fold that set cleary math wise, if we were saying i was sitting with 500bb or something.
      And im talking in general, not this hand. So all set vs 4 card flush.
    • Lindberg789
      Lindberg789
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.04.2009 Posts: 314
      Originally posted by martinemem
      Well i was suspecting him to have a set, and he would barrel all 3 times.

      If he was a good player he folded AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 to a potbetted raise

      To the question u mentioned, i would rather reconcider and call the flush down. But thats because i know who is playing suited and not.
      And thats because i like low varianse ;D

      Well this is a special hand, because normally i would also raise, but not a potsize bet, since he then thinks he has the best hand. :D

      Therefore i ask how often i can fold that set cleary math wise, if we were saying i was sitting with 500bb or something.
      And im talking in general, not this hand. So all set vs 4 card flush.

      U need to raise flop/turn get it in..

      U say if he is a good player he folds.. u are playing micros, aint no good players there.
      Keep it simple, get it in.
    • martinemem
      martinemem
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 596
      Why did you limp a pp?
      Why didn't u raide That flop?
      Why didn't u go broke on That turn^^?


      Im a nit :D

      A deceptive nit

      Last question, cannot answer. I thought we were both committed. Maybe stupid on the turn to not just get it in there, i guess i just HOPED there would not come another spade. When it came, he would push 100 % rivers with his stack, so i guess i could call 100% also.
    • martinemem
      martinemem
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 596
      Im trying to get better, so yes, please kick me when im lying down.

      No good players? How would you know, u are only silver?

      If u really wants to, lets compare graphs ?
      Saying nl2 there is no good players is kinda offending. SHOW ME SOMETHING that can clarify that u are better ?
      AND even think ur are in position to say if they suck or not.

      WHY do you think i would ask when i can fold sets math wise, if im suspecting someone has a better hand?
      Because im AHEAD of my limit, unlike u, that just is a stubbarn fish, saying all sucks.
    • SryImNoob
      SryImNoob
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 4,678
      i'm not really good but here's my nl2graph



      this limit is easily crushable playing an abc game and trying to value a max ( bet bet bet with good hand)

      nl5 look the same as nl2



      but personnaly nl10 was a step in my game and mental ($$$)







      yes there's ''reg'' in nl2 nl5 nl10 but if they arent uping limit they are beatable (or like playing bad player?)

      personnaly i would say go ABC game build a bankroll and after try to adapt your style of game in higher limit (nl10-nl25)

      but its my opinion :)
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      raise flop!

      turn, well sometimes fish play their FD like that. still a "damn you" ship it though, you'll see the worse sets and maybe even KK+ also

      river ?( ?( ?( as you shouldn't have been there, his pairs may have hit


      as for the gaps between limits.. imo

      playmoney ____ nl2 __ nl5 _ nl10 ___ nl25 ______ nl50
    • ClimaxingWalrus
      ClimaxingWalrus
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2010 Posts: 132
      raise pre and raise flop... people generally don't like folding after they've potted it like this and if he has like 66,77,99+ or an unlikely top pair good kicker you want to get the money in before any cards kill your action which there are a lot of (any spade/overcard) and you protect against all the draws that he probably still won't fold

      and taking a line because you think its lower variance when there is a more +EV line is essentially saying that you'll accept a lower winrate, which in turn actually increases your variance more so than taking the "higher variance" play which actually isn't higher variance at all because its more +EV and therefore your winrate is increased and you experience less variance
    • martinemem
      martinemem
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 596
      Ur right. But may i exclude the fact someone could bet pot flop with overcards?
      I know there is some that do this ;D but they are easy spotable ;D

      Well i might stop sometimes be so gently then, today i raised 3x sb with KK, to check to river to the nit that called in bb ;D



      When my 3,5bb/100 stopped peaking on the graph, was when i started reading articles to balance to get both red and blue sligtly up

      @ 13k hands i started to play 16 tables, and not table select, but only play on race tables with nits everywhere and 1fish / 12th player.
    • ClimaxingWalrus
      ClimaxingWalrus
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2010 Posts: 132
      I'm not saying he's betting pot with two overs, I'm saying that if he has a pair he'll feel much safer getting it in now before any overcard or spade comes.