# Balance fold top set - min set

• Bronze
Joined: 05.07.2011
\$0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

Hero (MP+1): \$2.02
CO: \$1.31
BTN: \$1.14
SB: \$7.15
BB: \$6.17
UTG: \$0.50
UTG+1: \$2.16
MP: \$3.36

SB posts SB \$0.01, BB posts BB \$0.02

Pre Flop: (\$0.03) Hero has 8 8

fold, UTG+1 calls \$0.02, fold, Hero calls \$0.02, fold, fold, SB raises to \$0.08, fold, UTG+1 calls \$0.06, Hero calls \$0.06

Flop: (\$0.26, 3 players) 3 8 5
SB checks, UTG+1 bets \$0.26, Hero calls \$0.26, fold

Turn: (\$0.78, 2 players) Q
UTG+1 bets \$0.78, Hero calls \$0.78

River: (\$2.34, 2 players) 7
UTG+1 bets \$1.04, Hero calls \$0.90

How often can i fold a set to a 4 card flush?
Is it possible to explain with a math equation?
Though i know when people like or dislike suited cards, i just want to erase that and calculate out the probability that he has a flush.
How does the equation differ when its a mid set or min set?
How does the quation differ when the last flush card on river is either K or A? (Thinking of overpairs)

I'm thinking now that the most common aswer is, get it in on flop. However low varianse is sometimes a more relaxing choice
He could also have TT-AA with a spade to the flush
so 2nd q:
How often can villain fold to a check shove on turn with TT-AA (1 spade) or 33, 55
Im right to say that he never folds set to checkshove, even though i never do this as a bluff?

And how does this change the equation if he's never 3rd barrel as a bluff? (nit reg)

And i am right saying that the fold is more often the best option when over 200bb ?
• 12 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 05.07.2011
He did though turn his hand upside down ;D

So i thought either 33 or 55

Another Q:

How does the fold balance change if the flop is mono, and turn is 4th card to flush?
• Bronze
Joined: 15.12.2010
Originally posted by martinemem

I'm thinking now that the most common aswer is, get it in on flop. However low varianse is sometimes a more relaxing choice
?
Raise the flop, his line looks strong so he should have a strong hand, if he doesnt hes not going to pay us anyway. also raise to protect against flush draws. player behind also gets good odds to call with a FD.

Q:
would you rather get it in on the flop knowing you have the nuts?
OR
call strong bets on the turn/river when the FD completes?

Also, if he has a flush draw, he would be more happy to get it in on the flop where his equity is higher.
• Silver
Joined: 18.12.2009
Why did you limp a pp?
Why didn't u raide That flop?
Why didn't u go broke on That turn^^?
• Bronze
Joined: 05.07.2011
Well i was suspecting him to have a set, and he would barrel all 3 times.

If he was a good player he folded AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 to a potbetted raise

To the question u mentioned, i would rather reconcider and call the flush down. But thats because i know who is playing suited and not.
And thats because i like low varianse ;D

Well this is a special hand, because normally i would also raise, but not a potsize bet, since he then thinks he has the best hand.

Therefore i ask how often i can fold that set cleary math wise, if we were saying i was sitting with 500bb or something.
And im talking in general, not this hand. So all set vs 4 card flush.
• Bronze
Joined: 10.04.2009
Originally posted by martinemem
Well i was suspecting him to have a set, and he would barrel all 3 times.

If he was a good player he folded AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 to a potbetted raise

To the question u mentioned, i would rather reconcider and call the flush down. But thats because i know who is playing suited and not.
And thats because i like low varianse ;D

Well this is a special hand, because normally i would also raise, but not a potsize bet, since he then thinks he has the best hand.

Therefore i ask how often i can fold that set cleary math wise, if we were saying i was sitting with 500bb or something.
And im talking in general, not this hand. So all set vs 4 card flush.

U need to raise flop/turn get it in..

U say if he is a good player he folds.. u are playing micros, aint no good players there.
Keep it simple, get it in.
• Bronze
Joined: 05.07.2011
Why did you limp a pp?
Why didn't u raide That flop?
Why didn't u go broke on That turn^^?

Im a nit

A deceptive nit

Last question, cannot answer. I thought we were both committed. Maybe stupid on the turn to not just get it in there, i guess i just HOPED there would not come another spade. When it came, he would push 100 % rivers with his stack, so i guess i could call 100% also.
• Bronze
Joined: 05.07.2011
Im trying to get better, so yes, please kick me when im lying down.

No good players? How would you know, u are only silver?

If u really wants to, lets compare graphs ?
Saying nl2 there is no good players is kinda offending. SHOW ME SOMETHING that can clarify that u are better ?
AND even think ur are in position to say if they suck or not.

WHY do you think i would ask when i can fold sets math wise, if im suspecting someone has a better hand?
Because im AHEAD of my limit, unlike u, that just is a stubbarn fish, saying all sucks.
• Silver
Joined: 18.12.2009
i'm not really good but here's my nl2graph

this limit is easily crushable playing an abc game and trying to value a max ( bet bet bet with good hand)

nl5 look the same as nl2

but personnaly nl10 was a step in my game and mental (\$\$\$)

yes there's ''reg'' in nl2 nl5 nl10 but if they arent uping limit they are beatable (or like playing bad player?)

personnaly i would say go ABC game build a bankroll and after try to adapt your style of game in higher limit (nl10-nl25)

but its my opinion
• Bronze
Joined: 17.01.2011
raise flop!

turn, well sometimes fish play their FD like that. still a "damn you" ship it though, you'll see the worse sets and maybe even KK+ also

river as you shouldn't have been there, his pairs may have hit

as for the gaps between limits.. imo

playmoney ____ nl2 __ nl5 _ nl10 ___ nl25 ______ nl50
• Bronze
Joined: 31.10.2010
raise pre and raise flop... people generally don't like folding after they've potted it like this and if he has like 66,77,99+ or an unlikely top pair good kicker you want to get the money in before any cards kill your action which there are a lot of (any spade/overcard) and you protect against all the draws that he probably still won't fold

and taking a line because you think its lower variance when there is a more +EV line is essentially saying that you'll accept a lower winrate, which in turn actually increases your variance more so than taking the "higher variance" play which actually isn't higher variance at all because its more +EV and therefore your winrate is increased and you experience less variance
• Bronze
Joined: 05.07.2011
Ur right. But may i exclude the fact someone could bet pot flop with overcards?
I know there is some that do this ;D but they are easy spotable ;D

Well i might stop sometimes be so gently then, today i raised 3x sb with KK, to check to river to the nit that called in bb ;D

When my 3,5bb/100 stopped peaking on the graph, was when i started reading articles to balance to get both red and blue sligtly up

@ 13k hands i started to play 16 tables, and not table select, but only play on race tables with nits everywhere and 1fish / 12th player.
• Bronze
Joined: 31.10.2010
I'm not saying he's betting pot with two overs, I'm saying that if he has a pair he'll feel much safer getting it in now before any overcard or spade comes.