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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL 50 JJ IP vs 3bet, flop set on broadway board

    • DeMarcohsp
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Prima, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $309.58 (619.2 bb)
      BB: $50 (100 bb)
      UTG: $50 (100 bb)
      MP: $50.52 (101 bb)
      CO: $55.09 (110.2 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $64.26 (128.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with J J
      UTG folds, MP raises to $1.50, CO folds, Hero calls $1.50, SB raises to $5.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $4.25

      Flop: ($13.50) Q K J (2 players)
      SB bets $9, Hero calls $9

      Turn: ($31.50) 5 (2 players)
      SB bets $23.50, Hero raises to $49.51, SB calls $26.01

      River: ($130.52) 3 (2 players)

      Given how aggressive villain is I thought that a call preflop is fine.

      On the flop I opted to call as I think that villain is going to continue betting on the turn pretty often, his cbet stat is not high and give this board texture I don't really expect him to cbet light.

      Plan is to usually shove over his bet on the turn or to bet myself.

      The only bad card for me I think would be a T as I see him cbetting with some combos of AK,AQ, with the A:diamond: or suited hearts.

      I think that on the turn he would stack off with enough combos of 2 pairs to make it profitable vs his 6 combos of sets (don't know if we can discount QQ with that 3bet stat), mainly KQ, KJs.

      I don't put 9Ts in his range, ATo might be, ATs usually not.

      So, what do you think? Profitable stack off spot?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello DeMarcohsp,

      Preflop: If we assume the guy is squeeze-happy then I'd just 4bet it and get it in instead of calling vs his 3bet and let him catch something.

      As played
      Postflop: We of course don't fold it anyways here. Just the question is how to maximize our value and I do agree that calling most likely and keeping his weaker hands in the play is still fine. Raising might scare away sometimes weaker hands.

      Best Regards.