Need help to analyze simple task because Im suck at it! TY

    • kiromanAAKK
      kiromanAAKK
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
      SB ($2.64)
      BB ($2.07)
      UTG ($0.82)
      Hero ($2.20)
      BTN ($1)

      Dealt to Hero 4:spade: 4:heart:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.08, BTN calls $0.08, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.19) Q:heart: 2:club: 7:club:

      Hero checks, BTN checks

      Villan has a VPIP of 29 and PFR of 26 with 3Bet% equal to 12.9
      When I check the flop he check behind.

      How I narrow his range here from a math point of view?

      The Flop CB even if he is not the aggressor can give me any indication that I can use to narrow his range?

      TY :)

      TURN ($0.19) Q:heart: 2:club: 7:club: Q:spade:

      Hero bets $0.14, BTN calls $0.14

      Again, how I narrow his range here? Which criteria Im going to use?

      RIVER ($0.47) Q:heart: 2:club: 7:club: Q:spade: 6:spade:

      Hero checks, BTN checks

      By now I should have a very close idea about his range and instead I cannot do it! I cannot do simple tasks like this ... Im suck!!!!

      Please, some1 help, TY :)
  • 9 replies
    • cjchalmers
      cjchalmers
      Silver
      Joined: 09.08.2010 Posts: 219
      flush draw fairly obv? ... sorry but i'm not up for being more constructive...
    • kiromanAAKK
      kiromanAAKK
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      Accord to Harrington in his cash game book, the calling range of villain should be 7.55% that looks like that

      TT-22, AJs-ATs, AJo-ATo, KJs+, KQo

      from such range I make my assumption based on the strength of his range forward the flop

      Combinations in complete range: 85 [Hero Eq: 40.01%]

      Grouped: 63 combos, 74.1% [Hero Eq: 46.94%]
      Ungrouped: 22 combos, 25.9% [Hero Eq: 20.2%]

      Group 1: 21 combos, 33.3% (24.7% total) [Hero Eq: 20.39%]
      Group 2: 6 combos, 9.5% (7.1% total) [Hero Eq: 4.65%]
      Group 3: 36 combos, 57.1% (42.4% total) [Hero Eq: 69.47%]

      Group 1: Pair with no fd and no sd

      TT-99, 66-55, 33, KQs, KQo

      Group 2: Set / trips with no fd and no sd

      77, 22

      Group 3: High card

      AJs-ATs, AJo-ATo, KJs

      now, because his passive line I should assume that he cannot have group 2 for sure limited (as he should play to gain some value) the choice to group 1 and 2.

      Am I on the right track or Im totally an idiot loser that cannot do simple tasks?

      TY :)
    • jonnyjm
      jonnyjm
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 447
      C-betting the flop would be a good place to start, you have the lead on the flop.

      When you check flop bet turn, you really don't rep any strength either.

      You also have to remember it's not ALL about narrowing villains range. You should also be asking yourself "How does my hand play against his range?", so in this case is 44 ahead or behind his range?

      Also the goal of the hand is important. On the flop you might very well have the best hand, in which case you should be C-bet for value & protection. You don't do this so you don't achieve anything nor do you gather any information on villains hand. So let me ask this: Why do you check the flop but bet the turn?
    • kiromanAAKK
      kiromanAAKK
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      Thx m8, to be honest Im trying to figure out and learn how to study more than how has been played the hand in this occasion!

      Regard to the hand, in play I didn't bet the hand maybe because I miss while I multi-tabling or maybe because Im trying hard to reduce my % of CB that is too high or for a reason that I dont have right in mind to be true as Im really realize how poor is my analytical view at moment and would like to learn that.

      The bet on the Turn is almost made to punish the passivity of villain on the flop I suppose but that doesnt mean it is right or wrong :)
    • kiromanAAKK
      kiromanAAKK
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      ... and now that Im look at the hand, yes, I realize that I made a mistake by missed the CB on the flop for sure!

      TY :)
    • kiromanAAKK
      kiromanAAKK
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      Finally, due the action, the passivity of villain but his sticky way to follow, I will go for this range on the river

      TT-99, 66-55, 33, KQs, KQo

      small to medium pairs with no FD or SD (because there are no SD on the board) and because by his stats I believe he will play aggressive on the flop or Turn his FD.

      Villain stats:

      VPIP 28
      PFR 26
      3Bet% 12.9
      F 3Bet% 100
      Hands: 92

      Please some1 tell me that Im on the right way to learn otherwise I got the gun already all I need some bullet (1 more then enough for the purpose)!

      P.S. Im after the way to analyze the hand more than the hand per se! TY :)
    • kiromanAAKK
      kiromanAAKK
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      Correction!

      He will bet the Q as TP definitely after my passivity on one of the following streets; so, his range should be

      TT-99, 66-55, 33

      Is that a close analysis and correct estimation of villain range by the river?

      TY :)
    • karbonade123
      karbonade123
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.11.2010 Posts: 46
      I think with TT-88 he would bet flop for sure. . in the end I think that he had 55-33.
    • kiromanAAKK
      kiromanAAKK
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      so, the range should be fine than ...

      What about the thinking processing take me to that range?

      Is it correct or I just guessing?

      TY :)

      P.S. No necessary! He would maybe try to get to a cheap showdown as there is an high card on the board and due the way he percipe hero, imo!