[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH 99 FH tough river

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,067
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($20.10)
      Hero ($20)
      UTG ($13.63)
      UTG+1 ($25.14)
      CO ($20)
      BTN ($20)

      Dealt to Hero 9:spade: 9:club:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.60, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.40

      FLOP ($1.30) A:diamond: 9:heart: J:diamond:

      Hero bets $0.80, UTG+1 calls $0.80

      TURN ($2.90) A:diamond: 9:heart: J:diamond: A:club:

      Hero bets $1.90, UTG+1 calls $1.90

      RIVER ($6.70) A:diamond: 9:heart: J:diamond: A:club: Q:club:

      Hero bets $16.70 (AI), UTG+1 calls $16.70

      21/20/1.6 102 hands

      c/r on flop would look very strong and he can fold his TP In think and of course his medium hands. While he might call with Jx, raise with draws.

      River - this was turbo table, so I dind't think much and showed because he would not fold Ax. But now I think only worse Ax is AK, other Ax are better fulhouses.
      But - can I bet normal and fold to raise? It would be very hard. KT is not very often in his range so he would not have striagt. So practically he would raise with better FH, and with AK he might just call. I don't know.

      But if I cannot get away when I bet river normala mount, then better to ship myself and get max value from AK
  • 7 replies
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      why not? halfpot it, then you'll have more than $10 behind which is a lot of room for folding

      he should be folding AK vs a shove because he should be well aware that like every reasonable worse Ax made it.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello SPeedFANat1c,

      Flop: Why would it be strong? I would also have in my Check/Raising range even draw type of hands. What does make you think that he folds? I don't see any realistic stat which should tell me that he folds. :) So I'd definitely Check/Raise here.

      As played
      Turn: What's the purpose of betting so small? The guy wont be raising you most likely with an Ace unless he has FH. So shouldn't be the idea to extract more value?

      As played
      River: Why do you shove? Do you ever see him calling with worse Ax hands? Most Ax hands even make FH, so definitely overplayed your FH.

      Why wouldn't you get away the river? Bet/Fold it cause I can't ever see this guy raising you with AK or whatsoever.

      Best Regards.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,067
      Flop: Why would it be strong? I would also have in my Check/Raising range even draw type of hands. What does make you think that he folds? I don't see any realistic stat which should tell me that he folds. So I'd definitely Check/Raise here.


      I see myself I rarely have a draw in this spot. With suited aces I am more likely 3beting and not calling especially when I don't know the oppenent much. The same with suited connectors. So practicaly I see KQs only what the draw could be there.

      Turn: What's the purpose of betting so small? The guy wont be raising you most likely with an Ace unless he has FH. So shouldn't be the idea to extract more value?


      With a draw he might fold and I want to get from Jx the call but if I bet too big, maybe even Jx can fold. I thought vs Ax I am getting money anyway, so I want to get from weak hands. Also I want him hit his flush draws, so I can stack them on the river.

      Edit:
      oh and still he is in MP, so not so sure if its too good to call with KQs, but I guess posible.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Why would you assume the opponent has the same range which you use? We could easily even have QTs/KQs here. Nor you don't even know if the guy is capable of folding his Ace. What made you think he folds it?

      If Jx calls you then he wont pay you much on the river anyways, meanwhile you miss a lot value from Ax hands. He doesn't even have that many Jx hands in his range. ;) Instead has a lot of Ax hands.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,067
      Why would you assume the opponent has the same range which you use? We could easily even have QTs/KQs here. Nor you don't even know if the guy is capable of folding his Ace. What made you think he folds it?


      What range would he have in SB it does not matter, but what range he puts me on matter. Of course I cannot tell what range he puts me on, but without info I assume he puts me on stronger range. So thats why I think he MIGHT fold top pair, I am not sure. But I know if I just donk, then he will never fold top pair at least on flop.

      We could easily even have QTs/KQs here.


      I am not calling with QTs OOP vs this oponent when he opens from MP. Maybe I could - but I am not ahead of his range I think with QTs and of course not having position. And not huge implied odds if call for str or flush draw, because his range is not the loosest posible also. How I could play profitably in this spot with QTs?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      Why would you assume the opponent has the same range which you use? We could easily even have QTs/KQs here. Nor you don't even know if the guy is capable of folding his Ace. What made you think he folds it?


      What range would he have in SB it does not matter, but what range he puts me on matter. Of course I cannot tell what range he puts me on, but without info I assume he puts me on stronger range. So thats why I think he MIGHT fold top pair, I am not sure. But I know if I just donk, then he will never fold top pair at least on flop.

      We could easily even have QTs/KQs here.


      I am not calling with QTs OOP vs this oponent when he opens from MP. Maybe I could - but I am not ahead of his range I think with QTs and of course not having position. And not huge implied odds if call for str or flush draw, because his range is not the loosest posible also. How I could play profitably in this spot with QTs?
      By understanding the opponent and his leaks? :)
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,067
      By understanding the opponent and his leaks?


      Hm, form 102 hand sample and stats 21/20/1.6 I cannot know his leaks. Unless I have some specific reads, but still risky, and most likely such opponent will not have serious leaks, that I could outplay with weaker hand than his range and OOP. I don't know :)