[NL2-NL10] NL10: KJs FD + 2 ovrcrds

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1854367
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $10.58 - VPIP: 0, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 6
      Hero (SB): $10.00 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 4,4, Hands: 46729
      BB: $10.00 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 20, 3B: 15, FlopAgg: 18.0, TurnAgg: 8.0, RiverAgg: 2.0, Hands: 117
      UTG: $20.00 - VPIP: 0, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 6
      CO: $31.14 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 15, 3B: 15, AF: 6,0, Hands: 65

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with J :diamond: K :diamond:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.35, BB calls $0.25

      Flop: ($0.70) T :diamond: 3 :diamond: 4 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.45, BB raises to $1.20, Hero calls $0.75

      Turn: ($3.10) K :club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BB checks

      River: ($3.10) Q :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BB bets $1.95, Hero calls $1.95


      What kind of a hand does villain most likely have on the turn? And on the river once he bets using that betsize?

      What do you think about the check/call line? I thought that since villain checks behind on turn he most likely has bluffed on the flop (I doubt that his range for raising flop cBets is merged and not polarised, i.e. consisting of medium made hands, although not impossible – given the preflop call the only hand that would make sense is JJ maybe or overplayed AT, but I block JJ quite a bit and often villain could also just call with those hands instead of raising them), and I also dont think villain is suddenly starting to slowplay his monster on the turn – the only made hands that he can really have on the river are very small PPs or random Kx hands, most of which I beat, that he decides to play for pot control – all the other hands are just trashy bluff hands that he has given up with. So it makes sense to check sine there are very few worse thands in his range that could make the call there. Decided to give him an opportunity to try an illogical bluff as he has such high AF values.
      The betsize worries me a bit as it is on the bigger size, and I also spent a considerable amount of time when making my decision on the river so those are some factors that speak against the call.
  • 3 replies
    • SryImNoob
      SryImNoob
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 4,678
      hi Avatars91

      i think for the AF the sample is too small (its give an idea that bb is agg (but we dont know if he's maniac)

      Preflop : KJs is obv an open , but i wonder why this sizing? Couldnt have you bet 4bb since you'll play the hand oop if he ever call?

      Flop : Value bet std with 2oc/2nutfd, bb raise

      What can be is raising range here?
      The board is pretty connect (flush / straight), so i think is range might look like 33-44-TT (even ip he dont want to see card completing the flush/straight and he obv want to value vs your range that might containt Tx JJ QQ KK AA) , AT , Axs.

      Turn : You go for the pot control so you would c/c and 'll c/c any river? isnt that your plan at the turn? If yes there 's no need to think about the river because you know you c/c turn to c/c riv.

      River : As play you go for the c/c because of your move flop/turn you think villain have Tx, busted draw (three of a kind) in his range.


      nh
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      What do you think about my overall thought process? Does it justify my play well enough?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      You ain't gonna get called from a lot worse hands on the river anyways and instead just let him bluff there which may very easily even happen. Or either the guy goes for thin value like with Qx. :D

      Instead of using AF -> use AFq which will tell more correct information for that sample.

      Best Regards.