[NL2-NL10] NL10: AT questionable cBet + 2nd barrel

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1855876
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      SB: $10.00 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 22, 3B: 14, AF: 2,7, Hands: 50
      BB: $9.95 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 0,2, Hands: 48
      UTG: $12.23 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 14, 3B: 7, AF: 2,3, Hands: 44
      MP: $5.90 - VPIP: 59, PFR: 6, 3B: 20, AF: 4,0, FoldToCbetFlop: 25(8), Hands: 34
      Hero (CO): $10.52 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 4,4, Hands: 47140
      BTN: $7.69 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 7, 3B: 0, AF: 1,0, Hands: 28

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with T :club: A :spade:
      1 fold, MP calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, 3 folds, MP calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.15) 9 :diamond: 8 :heart: K :heart: (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $0.60, MP calls $0.60

      Turn: ($2.35) A :club: (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $1.70, MP raises to $4.80, Hero folds

      The cBet is probably bad because the flop hits villains range really well and villain is generally not folding all that much to cBets anyway.

      But as played: what to do on the turn? Am I not committed if I bet? Villain can still be pushing with draws and sometimes even Kx or worse.
  • 5 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      I would not b/f tp hands against player who has midstack and 59 VPIP. Since he is pot committed after he calls your turn bet I think he would shove his Kx , sometimes with Ax hands and also his draws (btw A is perfect card for you to barrel and if he is thinking player he would shove there quite wide range)

      best regards,
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      1) How do you evaluate the flop cBet?

      2) And probably b/c on the turn is a better line than checkbehind turn, reevaluate river?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      1) How do you evaluate the flop cBet?

      2) And probably b/c on the turn is a better line than checkbehind turn, reevaluate river?
      1) How do you evaluate the flop cBet?
      I would prefer c-bet with likely the best hand- board is not that drawy and you should take pot quite often.

      2) And probably b/c on the turn is a better line than checkbehind turn, reevaluate river?
      - if villain likes to bluff you check back turn, then I don´t also mind check back turn, call river.

      Mostly I would bet for value, since I would prefer protect my hand against draws and get value from worse hands (I would also shove on blank river)
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      I would prefer c-bet with likely the best hand- board is not that drawy and you should take pot quite often.


      We have roughly somewhere around 50% equity against villain's range on this board, however, villain is rarely folding to cBets (25%(8)). We are breakeven against most draws (FDs, OESDs), so there is thin value only from gutshots and weaker Ax hands (we don't even know if he is chasing them and how often). If we cBet 2/3 we need 40% fold equity. Do you think that we are getting it? The board is actually quite drawy. It is both connected and it offers a FD. Most SCs and broadways in his range have hit at least a GS on this board. Quite a lot of FD, OESD, 1pair, and 2pair combos here.

      Against Gutshots we have 60%–68% equity, against some OESDs we are very slight favourites. So the only reason I can find to bet on this flop is thin value against those draws but that is just about it. Is that enough of a reason?

      What also bothers me a bit is that Veriz always points out that a board like this is actually to be classified as wet (not extremely wet as JhTh9h, of course, but obviously offering quite a few draws that this kind of a player could have hit, not to mention made hands). I have been always advised not to cBet such boards without a hit.
      That just makes me confused, guys.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      equity wise we´re indeed behind even against 60%

      board: Kh8h9d
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      AT 42.24% 3,867,211 280,371
      60% 57.76% 5,340,578 280,371

      but since he limped and we raised pf, we can represent all the strong hands starting with AK, KK, AA, 99, 88 and ending with medium strength hands as weaker Kx or TT-QQ+ some good flushdraws that we all are likely going to bet- so he can´t really /c for example 22 and hope we would always check it down, so we have even against better hands always fold equity.
      Also we make sure we see most of the times turn and river and can either improve to better hand or for example make him fold better hands, if turn/river comes Q, J. So even if we might get 40% fold equity on the flop we don´t get bluffed out by worse hands, sometimes get value and make sure we see river where we have the most information.

      What also bothers me a bit is that Veriz always points out that a board like this is actually to be classified as wet (not extremely wet as JhTh9h, of course, but obviously offering quite a few draws that this kind of a player could have hit, not to mention made hands). I have been always advised not to cBet such boards without a hit.
      - if I raise pf then to me it is c-bet as I mentioned before- that way I can make sure that I also get paid if I have good hands, if you check back and would fold to turn bet then you´re just loosing your pre-flop 0.5$ every time if you misses and makes him very easy playing against you. But again it is just different playing styles- I would not consider that board and my equity that bad that I should give up.

      best regards,