[NL2-NL10] NL10: 55 spewy bluff check/raise?

    • Avatars91
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1858404
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $18.51 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 14, 3B: 4, AF: 1,5, Hands: 589
      MP: $9.55 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 1,5, Hands: 32
      CO: $11.64 - VPIP: 48, PFR: 35, 3B: 2, AF: 2,5, CO Steal: 47, WTS: 27, FlopCbet: 75(24), Hands: 163
      BTN: $10.60 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 1, AF: 1,0, Hands: 249
      Hero (SB): $11.22 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 4,5, Hands: 49387
      BB: $4.00 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 11, 3B: 2, AF: 5,0, Hands: 158

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with 5 :diamond: 5 :heart:
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.20, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.15, 1 fold

      Flop: ($0.50) Q :spade: 7 :spade: 3 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $0.30, Hero raises to $1.30, CO calls $1

      Turn: ($3.10) T :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.20, CO folds

      This might look like spew but there is at least some logic:
      Villain's range preflop is very wide. He is also cBetting a lot, and I would imagine that on this board - with his whole range even. Since he does not really hit this board all that often, I thought that it makes sense to try and play back. Against his range I am even a slight favourite here.
      If anything, I can easily 2nd barrel any spade, representing a flush. I can even sometimes hit my trips. Sure would be better if I had a spade for the backdoor FD, but do I have to have additional equity in all spots to bluff? Is this not an exceptional case?

      If this makes sense, then what do you think about a 2nd barrel on any turn card? Still some value, or even fold equity against FDs. Can even make him fold out some of his weaker pairs maybe.
  • 5 replies
    • pokerboy198229
      Joined: 20.08.2011 Posts: 1,095
      Good play, but ik think u have to realize some poker mindset:

      Poker is not about : I probably have the best hand and he missed so let bet and take the pot.

      Poker is about : I think I have the best hand, so let him bluff more to win much bigger pot.

      Poker is about : i raise only when I think i get called by worse hand. Otherwise there is no reason to raise..

      So evaluating that hand: u get only called if he had better hand and he is folding all his bad hands.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      Well, but why would you want to overplay a loose guy who practically calls any pair on this flop and obviously never folds any draws. If you even get called you very often will have rather near 0 equity and whatever hand he has will have decent equity against you. So you are rather picking not the best spots.

      Best Regards.
    • Avatars91
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Is check/folding not too weak here?
      I mean, sure we can just play for set value and it's OK, but I believe that on this flop we are actually slightly ahead of villain's range (I put realistic ranges in Equilab and calculated the equity, which appeared to be somewhere around 52% or smthn like that). Even if villain calls with any pair (he maybe folds the very small weak ones, that we do not know) and FD, he still misses most of the time on this board and for this check/raise to work we need 52% fold equity. Is villain crazy enough to continue without a hit on this board with me not having been all that active at the table? Even if villain calls us on the flop, can we not make him fold his weaker holdings/floats with a 2nd barrel often enough? Maybe even get value from FDs?

      Is this not at least close spot given villain's preflop looseness? Do my calculations make any sense?
    • muel294
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,205
      Even if villain calls us on the flop, can we not make him fold his weaker holdings/floats with a 2nd barrel often enough?

      This is the point I think. You won't get him to fold a better hand (QX, TX, 7X 66/88/99), he will only fold his air.

      The times you get called and spew off will outweigh the times you get him to fold and pick up the pot, which will probably result in a net loss in the long run.

      If villain is TAG and has a lowish WTS, high ATS and a reasonable c-bet stat (anywhere between 65%+) and and the board was Q73r, then I like a x/rai here. We basically only rep 77/33 but it will balance our c/f lines
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      You got already decent answer. I don't understand why people think that we have to fight over every single pot to play profitable? :f_biggrin: You understand that every single mistake costs you more money than going for the Check/raise and try to win it?