[NL2-NL10] Hand Evaluation Coaching - Homework #48 19.08.12

    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello PokerStrategists,

      as some of you may have heard that we have a homework in each of our No-Limit Hand Evaluation Coachings.

      Here is the homework for the coaching from August 19th, please note:

      • Everybody is invited to share his thoughts here regardless if you joined the last coaching or not.
      • Whoever is active in the homework threads can get a free database analysis by us which helps you to improve your game.

      Find the hand below waiting for you opinions and analysis posted in this thread. Furthermore do not forget to join our next coaching on Sunday, August 26th at 1 PM GMT.

      [quote]Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.04(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($4.26)
      BB ($4)
      UTG ($5.87)
      UTG+1 ($4.89)
      UTG+2 ($4.06)
      MP1 ($4.08)
      CO ($4.15)
      BTN ($6.80)

      Dealt to Hero 8:club: 8:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to $0.12, fold, Hero calls $0.10, BB calls $0.08

      FLOP ($0.36) 7:spade: 8:heart: 6:club:

      Hero bets $0.17, BB folds, CO raises to $0.56, Hero calls $0.39

      TURN ($1.48) 7:spade: 8:heart: 6:club: 5:heart:

      Hero checks, CO bets $1.12, Hero calls $1.12

      RIVER ($3.72) 7:spade: 8:heart: 6:club: 5:heart: K:heart:

      [color=red]Hero checks, CO bets $2.35 (AI), Hero ?

      Villain is a 18/14/5,3/2,5K Hands type of player![/quote]
  • 6 replies
    • DrRaab
      DrRaab
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2011 Posts: 694
      Board by river:

      Equity Win Tie
      UTG 14.54% 14.54% 0.00% 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo
      UTG+1 85.46% 85.46% 0.00% 88

      Villains stats are very tight, so could have tens+ quite unlikely to have 9T. If it was the button maybe more likely.

      Raise on the flop pretty much shows he has a high pocket pair
      With the equilab it is pretty much a snap call as its highly unlikely he has a flush with his aggression prior to the the river
    • Resilence
      Resilence
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.03.2012 Posts: 934
      I still think we need to protect this flop, so I don't get the bet size, I make it 27 cents.
      I disagree with DrRaab on villains range :) ,I think he could have T9s, it would make perfect sense to bet these from CO, I'm sure he has a wider range from CO than his normal PFR (14%) it's properly closer to 20%. Maybe he could even do it with T9o dno.

      I would narrow his range down to something like this QQ+,99-55,T9s,98s,T9o
      Can't see other hands being this aggressive, that massive bet on flop indicates a rather strong hand, but I guess we can't really fold here?

      What do I know i'm just a :f_cool:
    • jules97
      jules97
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.06.2012 Posts: 1,449
      I wouldn't donk the flop. It makes it hard to play later on. I'd check/raise. The donk bet size is too small regardless.

      As played I want to protect the hand after the donk is raised. So I'd just reraise and get it in.

      On the turn, it's a mess and folding looks ok. If this guy had an overpair or a draw I think he would check behind. So he either has a made straight or a lower set. So, in a difficult position now because of the flop play.

      If you plan on staying in the hand on the turn and river no matter what cards come up. You might as well protect your hand earlier on in the flop.
    • Puscherbilbo
      Puscherbilbo
      Platinum
      Joined: 17.06.2009 Posts: 1,229
      Preflop:

      I think it is ok to coldcall 88 there in general. It is w/o set hard to play postflop so one should check in his DB if he really turns a profit but i think on average it is still possible.
      Some things that would work in our favour are:
      - BB does not squeeze much but overcalls a lot.
      - CO has a tight range CO-range and is SD-bound
      - BB barrels a lot with air (better payoff with Sets).

      Flop: If villain tends to cbet a lot 80% or more in HU-spots then i still prefer the checkraise here. C-betting too much is a quite common leak and craising a lot on boards he misses a lot of the time is a nice exploitive line. However if we think that villain checks back a lot on such boardstructures as he misses them a lot then a donk is the better alternative. Since the most likely coldcalling-Range from SB is PPs + Facecards + Ax it is actually not such a bad spot for villain to cbet a lot since we rarely ever have a Set and might fold OCs right away leaving us with a very weak calling-Range. But on average i think this board is perceived as to hit the SB more often than not so i do not expect too much cbetting.
      Check-Calling is not an option in my opinion as there are plenty of cards that can kill the action even if he does not improve.
      Hence i prefer the donkbet.
      Considering the size I would argue that we should make it close to potsize. I personally dont expect random Floats so his most likely holdings that will call us are Pair+Draw, Overpair, 2pair or better. So he is likely to call us no matter what betsize we use (static callingrange).
      If we want to balance this spot at least a little i suggest c-raising/donking JTs (if we have it) or other Tx type hands. We still have some outs and we cannot call with those anyway and become less readable.

      Facing the raise i think we actually should be glad to get it in. if he is on a bluff he is not likely to continue on T+R so we dont miss out value. But he can very well have a lot worse hands that would like to get it in here but are less prone to do son once the Turn brings a scarecard.

      Turn: I think check-calling here is only warranted in very special cases with very good reads. More often than not we encounter a negative freeroll. As the opponent appears to be straight forward i think bet/fold is the way to go. He can still call with a lot of worse hands but he is unlikely to raise anything but the 9. If he does so too small we can actually call for Quad/FHouts. As we have those and our line looks kind of weird i think he can actually valuebet worse hands so he have to call.


      River: Since i do not expect him to fold any 9x on the flop it mainly depends on his preflop-Range how many 9x he can actually have. I am not so much afraid of the BD-Flush as hands like Th9h or 9h7h had us beat anyway. Only possible FD that now has us beat is 7h6h but i kind of doubt it would bet the Turn.
      Opening from CO he can have 99,A9s,J9s,T9s,98s. And 97s A9o K9s Q9s are all possible too.
      So he has at least 15 combos (99,A9s,T9s,98s) that beat us and he may have up to 55 combos (99, A9s-97s, A9o T9o, 7h6h).

      In my opinion he is not likely to valuebet worse hands than ours. As we need 28% he must habe at least 4 combos to bluff with but we may need him to bluff 10+ combos. Since he does not have missed draws we need him to turn hands into a bluff. While he has enough weak made hands in his range i highly doubt that on this limit it is realistic.
      Hence the River is an easy fold.
    • Puscherbilbo
      Puscherbilbo
      Platinum
      Joined: 17.06.2009 Posts: 1,229
      While i agree with the other guys that Overpairs are part of his flopraising-Range i would like to point out that he actually has a bluffcatcher with both Overpairs + 2pairs bc we are more often than not on Set+ or nothing which can very well bet only Sets+. So those hands should actually call the Flop if we were in villains position.
      A donkplay makes our hand a little bit better disguised as we could donk a much wider range.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello,

      Preflop: Pretty standard set-mining spot, not much to comment.
      Flop: Though Check/Raising might be more reasonable here cause if he is willing to pay with overpairs vs us then we should be trying to get maximum money from him. If we assume he isn't a guy who likes to pay a lot vs the Check/Raises and can easily fold then donking is definitely a good option but then again you should be doing it much bigger. Also the donking idea should be donk/3bet instead of giving him the option to hit.

      As played
      Turn: Well, do you think you are able to get his whole stack when we hit our Quads/FH? If you assume that to be true then sure we could consider taking the implied odds, although if rather not then might be even better to just fold the hand here without implied odds.
      River: Fold it, not much that you have beat even backdoor FD got there.

      Best Regards.