[NL20-NL50] FR50 AJ top pair river play OOP

    • circoflax
      Joined: 26.02.2010 Posts: 413
      BB: $58.62 (117.2 bb)
      UTG+2: $133.82 (267.6 bb)
      MP1: $43.25 (86.5 bb)
      MP2: $57.85 (115.7 bb)
      MP3: $109.62 (219.2 bb)
      CO: $121.53 (243.1 bb)
      BTN: $79.16 (158.3 bb)
      Hero (SB): $60.82 (121.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A J
      4 folds, CO raises to $1.75, BTN folds, Hero calls $1.50, BB folds

      Flop: ($4) 2 2 A (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks

      Turn: ($4) 6 (2 players)
      Hero bets $3, CO calls $3

      River: ($10) T (2 players)
      Hero ???

      Villain is 22/16, 69 hands so not a big sample, AF 0.9
      Bet river for value? Let him bluff if he has clubs?
      The problem is he's never betting a worse ace and never checking behind or folding a better one. Since he checked behind on the flop, I don't think he has AJ-AK, so he might have AT or worse, or just missed clubs.
  • 3 replies
    • Hackett77
      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      What is villains flop cbet and river aggression?

      He can actually show up with AQ+ alot here as this is a a perfect spot to check back those hands from a value perspective. There is very little need for him to bet this flop with TP here and he can often get 2 streets of value from hands that call flop and fold turn.

      Obviously I have no idea if villian is aware of this though and we have no sample to make any assumptions. Im just saying because its something to be aware of, plus I think too many people auto cbet AQ+ here which they shouldnt do everytime on this type of flop.

      I would betfold around 40-60% of pot for thin value vs underpairs and weak Axs as I dont see him bluffing clubs with such a low AF and such a dry board.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello circoflax,

      He still has also maybe even JJ-KK or whatsoever in his range, therefore I'd Bet really smallish on the river for value to get called from those hands, something like $3-5.

      Best Regards.
    • circoflax
      Joined: 26.02.2010 Posts: 413
      Exactly what I did, I bet 5, he called with AT.