[NL20-NL50] FR50 99 turned set

    • circoflax
      circoflax
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.02.2010 Posts: 413
      BTN: $57.87 (115.7 bb)
      SB: $49.50 (99 bb)
      BB: $133.82 (267.6 bb)
      UTG+1: $43.25 (86.5 bb)
      UTG+2: $58.60 (117.2 bb)
      MP1: $109.62 (219.2 bb)
      MP2: $130.78 (261.6 bb)
      MP3: $79.16 (158.3 bb)
      Hero (CO): $51.07 (102.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 9 9
      UTG+1 raises to $1.25, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls $1.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.25, 3 folds

      Flop: ($4.50) A 6 4 (3 players)
      UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($4.50) 9 (3 players)
      UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets $3, Hero raises to $9, UTG+1 calls $9, MP1 folds

      River: ($25.50) K (2 players)
      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $12, UTG+1 raises to $33 and is all-in, Hero folds


      Villain plays 15/9/1.1 over 3k hands, AF=1.6 so rather nitty. I think he's never bluffing here, but I wonder what the hell can he decide to check twice then cold call a raise and CR river with? AA? Has he turned the nut flush? Then why not just bet the turn and river? Isn't it just stupid of him to choose this line on the river?

      On the other hand, since everybody checked the flop, nobody seems to have an A. So my raise on the turn is either a bluff, a flush or a set of nines. So if he has the nut flush, he could go for the CR on the river since I will bet those hands again...

      I got very confused by his line in the hand, but I don't think I'm ever good on that river.
  • 10 replies
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      as an useless generalization, when a weird tight player ships the monies, it's mostly the nuts.
      i agree that he is never bluffing, specially vs your turn line

      i'm not sure about raising the turn though. what that didn't bet the flop are you getting value from... you are pretty much repping a good flush there
    • circoflax
      circoflax
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.02.2010 Posts: 413
      I forgot to mention MP1 was a fish, and since he is the first one to bet postflop, I raise the turn for a lot of value. Maybe could have raised it some more against that guy. I was completely shocked when UTG cold called after checking twice.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello circoflax,

      MP obviously has also flushes in his range, especially when he is fishy who ain't taking stabs with draws. Therefore turn is kinda bottom line, what's your plan if you get for example 3bet on the turn, do you still plan to ship it?

      But otherwise on the river not much to comment, we ain't beating much there vs his line.

      Best Regards.
    • circoflax
      circoflax
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.02.2010 Posts: 413
      MP was fishy but agg also, so I was deff stacking off with the set in that spot. He was playing something like 35/15 over 2-300 hands and playing a lot OOP. I've seen these guys ship with 1 pair + 1 club too many times not to go broke there.

      I'm curios, what do you think UTG has? Cause his line doesn't make any sense but he's clearly holding something close to the nuts.
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      i'd put him on K Q exactly. :D
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      I don't give him much credit for the flush because:
      - He would bet the flop most likely
      - He would go broke on the turn (if he has Khi FD or Qhi FD or something)

      So I like to raise the turn for value.

      Though I don't see much value on the river... I really think A9 has an easy fold now and there isn't a big chance he has AK. So I'd consider checking behind here.

      Veriz?
    • letmewinplz8
      letmewinplz8
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2010 Posts: 439
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      I don't give him much credit for the flush because:
      - He would bet the flop most likely
      - He would go broke on the turn (if he has Khi FD or Qhi FD or something)

      So I like to raise the turn for value.

      Though I don't see much value on the river... I really think A9 has an easy fold now and there isn't a big chance he has AK. So I'd consider checking behind here.

      Veriz?
      I think you could bet/f like $6 and hope you somehow get looked up by worse.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by circoflax
      MP was fishy but agg also, so I was deff stacking off with the set in that spot. He was playing something like 35/15 over 2-300 hands and playing a lot OOP. I've seen these guys ship with 1 pair + 1 club too many times not to go broke there.

      I'm curios, what do you think UTG has? Cause his line doesn't make any sense but he's clearly holding something close to the nuts.
      With his style of raise we could even see here as well Q:cJ I would assume and sometimes maybe even looser but I would tend to think that it's towards nutted hand. And of course I am also Bet/Folding, I don't see myself ever here to Bet/Call it vs such a passive-nit. Has to be really good reason to do that.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      did you read my question? :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      did you read my question? :)
      And what's about it? :) Pretty standard Bet/Fold spot still on the river, enough of worse hands which are capable of calling us down.