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[NL2-NL10] NL10: KK 3Bet terrible board

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1864797
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (BTN): $11.62 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 4,6, Hands: 55868
      SB: $1.76 - VPIP: 43, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 8,5, Hands: 49
      BB: $6.96 - VPIP: 60, PFR: 22, 3B: 0, AF: 0,4, AFq: 16, Hands: 50
      UTG: $10.00 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 16, 3B: 10, AF: 0,8, Hands: 117
      MP: $10.00 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 14, 3B: 5, AF: 1,6, Hands: 334
      CO: $13.09 - VPIP: 41, PFR: 29, 3B: 11, AF: 4,7, Hands: 41

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with K :club: K :diamond:
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.20, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, BB calls $0.90, 1 fold

      Flop: ($2.25) 4 :heart: 6 :heart: J :heart: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.90, BB calls $1.90

      Turn: ($6.05) A :diamond: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $8.72, BB calls $4.06 all in

      River: ($14.17) K :spade: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      This is very close. After playing around with equilator, I have come to the conclusion that I have ~32% equity against his flop calling range on the turn (and that's assuming that villain is cold calling a 3Bet with a somewhat tight TT-QQ, AJ+ range – he could maybe even have much worse hands there). Since I need 40% equity for a push to be +EV I need to have 8% FE. If my assumption that villain can call with TT-QQ preflop and can always call on this flop even without the heart, could I get these 8% if I fold out some of his TT-QQ combos (sometimes even some of his combos that have a heart in it)?

      If that is the case, pushing on the turn should be +EV.

      However, since villain is so passive, can I maybe even just check and see what he does? He could be just checking until showdown very often. Maybe that is even more +EV.
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      I would definitely prefer Checking in those spots, best spot to do that cause whatever he had he most likely had A if he had the , unless he had some PP. Nor he wont take stabs without a hand on the river anyways.

      Best Regards.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Sounds reasonable and I will try doing that in future.

      But, according to my calculations, can a push here also be +EV?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      Sounds reasonable and I will try doing that in future.

      But, according to my calculations, can a push here also be +EV?
      Doubt that it's huge +EV spot, you ain't getting called from a lot worse anyways. :) So instead of thinking either it's +EV or not vs unknown guy instead try to concentrate what's the correct line. ;)