[NL20-NL50] Nl25 zoom TT utg

    • xoshix33
      xoshix33
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.09.2011 Posts: 348
      PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BTN: $45.64
      SB: $12.32
      BB: $39.46
      Hero (UTG): $25.00
      MP: $30.35
      CO: $15.56

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has T:spade: T:club:

      Hero raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, CO calls $0.75, BTN raises to $4.00, fold, fold, Hero raises to $25.00 and is all-in, fold, fold, BTN calls $21.00

      Flop: ($51.85, 2 players) 9:spade: J:spade: J:diamond:

      Turn: ($51.85, 2 players) A:spade:

      River: ($51.85, 2 players) 4:diamond:


      i think here i have so much fold equity that its gonna be +ev to shove here, can i min 4bet call here? just due to the fact a min 4bet in this spot looks way stronger than a shove?
  • 7 replies
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      i think here i have so much fold equity that its gonna be +ev to shove here


      Why do you think that?

      Without seeing any stats+solid sample I'm just folding!
    • xoshix33
      xoshix33
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.09.2011 Posts: 348
      villian had 17% 3bet on a small sample 40 hands, its still a perfect spot to squeeze with a wide range.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Originally posted by xoshix33
      villian had 17% 3bet on a small sample 40 hands, its still a perfect spot to squeeze with a wide range.
      I would still let the hand go... we open utg after all.
    • xoshix33
      xoshix33
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.09.2011 Posts: 348
      thats why mostly he is going to be more respectful of the shove.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      That's true but look we still have to invest a lot and he won't call with worse.
      I estimate his range to be tighter than thisone but let's say he 3bets superwide:
      JJ+,AQs+,A2o+,K9o+,QJo

      That are 224 combo's.

      So lets say we shove and he calls: JJ+, AK. (36 combo's so 16%)
      EQ vs his broke range: 31%
      total pot after call = 51.85
      pot we win if he folds = 6.6

      EV = 0.16*0.31*51.85 - 0.16*0.69*51.85 + 0.84*6.6 = +$2.3
      So if he 3B that wide it's +EV

      but it's really unlikely.

      So let's say a more realistic range:
      JJ+,AKs,A9o+,KTo+,QJo
      That are 124 combo's

      He goes broke with JJ+, AK (36 combo's so 30%)

      EV = 0.3*0.31*51.85 - 0.3*0.69*51.85 + 0.7*6.6 = -$1.2

      So -EV probably.

      If he is squeezehappy it will be close as you see but you should avoid these superclose spots which are super variance heavy!
    • nickvdb1990
      nickvdb1990
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2010 Posts: 1,753
      Originally posted by Farmarchist
      If he is squeezehappy it will be close as you see but you should avoid these superclose spots which are super variance heavy!
      +ev is +ev
      aint nothing to it, EV made me do it
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello xoshix33,

      Just fold it, don't really see why we should be going broke here, nor I don't get your shove point. You are just making his worse hands to fold and stronger range continues.

      Also why would you want to play back vs an unknown opponent?

      Best Regards.