[NL2-NL10] NL10 zoom A2s, dry board turned TPNK, bluffcatch river vs large bet?

    • member001
      Joined: 18.03.2010 Posts: 288
      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      BTN: $12.69 (126.9 bb) unknown
      Hero (SB): $10.55 (105.5 bb)
      BB: $21.60 (216 bb)
      UTG: $27.10 (271 bb)
      MP: $4.85 (48.5 bb)
      CO: $12.49 (124.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 2 A
      3 folds, BTN calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, BB folds, BTN calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.10) 3 6 J (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.60, BTN calls $0.60

      Turn: ($2.30) A (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $1.20, Hero calls $1.20

      River: ($4.70) 9 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $4, Hero calls $4

      $12.70 pot ($0.57 rake)
      Final Board: 3 6 J A 9
      BTN showed K T and lost (-$6.30 net)
      Hero showed 2 A and won $12.13 ($5.83 net)

      Main question here is on the river.

      Preflop: isolate the limper
      Flop: not sure about cbet here. I can't represent much, but on the other hand he has a weak range and I have some backdoors, so on balance I decide to keep the initiative.
      Turn: I'm happy with my check/call here. No point 2nd barrelling because no worse hand will call again, but I can bluffcatch against floats and whatnot.
      River: villain's betsizing really confused me. On this board straight is not possible, flush not possible, 2pair not possible except maybe AJ which I block anyway. So what monster hand is he representing? Just a very small number of combos of slowplayed set, so imo he is often bluffing. (Also I think a genuine value bet would be smaller.) Without being biased by the results on this particular occasion, is it on average profitable to call here vs unknown at nl10?
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