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[NL2-NL10] AQo turn bluff c/r

    • Gonchan
      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,877
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $25 (100 bb)
      SB: $28.34 (113.4 bb)
      BB: $36.22 (144.9 bb)
      UTG+1: $25 (100 bb)
      UTG+2: $17.28 (69.1 bb)
      MP1: $36.78 (147.1 bb)
      MP2: $42.92 (171.7 bb)
      MP3: $32.20 (128.8 bb)
      Hero (CO): $12.50 (50 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A J
      5 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds

      Flop: ($1.85) Q T 3 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.06, BTN calls $1.06

      Turn: ($3.97) T (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $2, Hero raises to $10.69 and is all-in, BTN calls $8.69

      River: ($25.35) 2 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      $25.35 pot ($1.14 rake)
      Final Board: Q T 3 T 2
      BTN showed J Q and won $24.21 ($11.71 net)
      Hero showed A J and lost (-$12.50 net)

      I firstly thought he did his bet as float because of vs missed CB bet 100(3)
      However,I noticed now I didn't have enough sample.

      On these sample what do you do? his calling range was not so narrow.

      And if sample was over 1000, what do you do?
  • 1 reply
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678

      THis is your equity:


      Board: Q:diamond: T:diamond: 3:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    64.60%  62.94%   1.66% { AJs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, Ad9d, Kd9d, Ks9s, Jd9d, Js9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, AQo, ATo, KJo+, QTo+ }
      MP3    35.40%  33.73%   1.66% { AhJs }


      Board: Q:diamond: T:diamond: 3:spade:  T:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    68.07%  66.29%   1.77% { AJs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, Ad9d, Kd9d, Ks9s, Jd9d, Js9s, Ad8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, 8d7d, 7d6d, 6d5d, AQo, ATo, KJo+, QTo+ }
      MP3    31.93%  30.16%   1.77% { AhJs }

      So check/shoving with a limited sample is terrible. Betting is also not good because the board does not change that often.

      Your question about 1000 hand sample does not make sense. You have 3 samples about Missed vs CBet, now you need at least 100 subsamples of that to actually use it so whenever Villain gets to that point, that is how many hands you need.

      I would check/fold the Turn

      Best regards,