[NL2-NL10] [NL10-SH] AQs NFD

    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,184
      Seat 1: Player1 ( €9.90 EUR ) - VPIP: 28, PFR: 10, 3B: 9, AF: 1.0, Hands: 93
      Seat 2: Player2 ( €13.27 EUR ) - VPIP: 30, PFR: 26, 3B: 8, AF: 2.1, Hands: 109
      Seat 3: Player3 ( €1.88 EUR ) - VPIP: 57, PFR: 14, 3B: 20, AF: 0.0, Hands: 7
      Seat 4: Player4 ( €14.09 EUR ) - VPIP: 35, PFR: 23, 3B: 3, AF: 1.9, Hands: 115
      Seat 5: Hero ( €12.99 EUR ) - VPIP: 27, PFR: 22, 3B: 7, AF: 3.2, Hands: 8498
      Seat 6: Player6 ( €10.10 EUR ) - VPIP: 14, PFR: 12, 3B: 2, AF: 4.3, Hands: 381

      Prima, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $9.90 (99 bb)
      BB: $13.27 (132.7 bb)
      MP: $14.09 (140.9 bb)
      Hero (CO): $12.99 (129.9 bb)
      BTN: $10.10 (101 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A Q
      MP folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, BB folds

      Flop: ($0.70) 7 4 2 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.45, SB raises to $1.20, Hero raises to $3.25, SB raises to $7.40, Hero raises to $12.69, SB calls $2.20 and is all-in

      Turn: ($19.90) 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($19.90) T (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Results:
      $19.90 pot ($0.99 rake)
      Final Board: 7 4 2 5 T
      SB showed 2 2 and lost (-$9.90 net)
      Hero showed A Q and won $18.91 ($9.01 net)


      passive opponent getting aggro on a pretty dry board, as i dont see him raising a weaker FD. obvious set is obvious? :D guess he could also have overcards but i think he would have RR pre.

      how should i proceed? call and see his actions on the turn? we're getting ~3:1
  • 4 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello gxtwo,

      As you said yourself a passive opponent, therefore I don't really like to go broke here. :( You are very often facing a strong hand here.

      Best Regards.
    • gxtwo
      gxtwo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2010 Posts: 1,184
      what about calling the flop raise?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by gxtwo
      what about calling the flop raise?
      Yes, that's an option if we assume to get paid when the flush arrives. Although seems like that might be true vs such a guy.
    • Huricano
      Huricano
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.08.2010 Posts: 2,228
      Originally posted by gxtwo
      what about calling the flop raise?
      If his range is very strong (only sets) that's even better because of IO.
      You are basically risking 75c to take down 10$, however on turn he will still have 10 outs (20%) to suckout you,
      so basic EV calculation can go like this:

      EV(fold) = 0

      EV(call) = (-0.75$)+8/45*(0.8*(9.9$+0.75$+0.75$)+0.2*(-8.4$))

      EV(call) = -0.75$+1.62$-0.3$=0.57$

      If something is wrong in formula just let me know.

      -0.75$ is for calling a flop raise
      8/45 because he can't make a set using :club: thus your outs are count from 47-2=45 cards
      4 :club: is actually a very bad out so I count 8 outs.
      0.8 and 0.2 stands for his chance of making a boat on the river (20%)
      If he will make it you're going to lose additional 8.4$ and if he won't make it you will win 9.9(his stack)+0.75(dead money from preflop raise and cbet)+0.75 back from calling a flop raise.

      So if you can dodge bullets on A/Q and mysterious 4 :club: turn just snap it.