[NL2-NL10] AQs flat or 3bet? NL10 MSS

    • Castle93
      Castle93
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2011 Posts: 1,452
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1873469
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      CO: $15.40 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 21, 3B: 0, AF: 0.7, Hands: 38
      BTN: $12.32 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: 5.0, Hands: 54
      SB: $3.72 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 20, 3B: 14, AF: 0.0, Hands: 20
      Hero (BB): $4.81 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 13, 3B: 7, AF: 4.0, Hands: 8704
      UTG: $10.00 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 16, 3B: 3, AF: 1.4, Hands: 94

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with A :diamond: Q :diamond:
      1 fold, CO raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.65) 5 :diamond: Q :spade: T :club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks

      Turn: ($0.65) Q :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.40, CO calls $0.40

      River: ($1.45) Q :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.50, CO folds


      I was thinking back to the coaching yesterday, and range. I didnt think AQs was ahead on their 4 betting range from that position, so i would have had to 3 bet fold, i think AQs is strong enough to just play OOP and keep the pot small. I know you hate flatting but what do you think?
  • 5 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by Castle93
      I know you hate flatting but what do you think?
      :D All jokes aside but you know my opinion inside out


      So can you convince me why EV(call preflop & playing postflop OOP without iniatieve) is more profitable than EV(3bet) or at least more profitable EV(fold = -0.10$)?


      - Gerv
    • Castle93
      Castle93
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2011 Posts: 1,452
      It's very close, I could 3 bet for value here since its the CO but it's a 5 handed game

      My logic behind calling is I have his opening range crushed if I put any more money in the pot post flop, if I 3 bet and get 4bet I have to fold, if he flats there's a good chance I'm behind.

      By just calling I keep all his dominated hands on that will likely still go broke against my stack size so I don't really need to 3bet to build a pot as just defending the BB underreps my hand massively

      I would 3bet the BTN or 3bet the CO if I was on the BTN in this spot being IP, but OOP even with the initative I have a tough time post flop of he flats and it comes a low/ connected flop


      I think it's so marginal between a 3bet and call, I think folding too nitty if you jaw a semi decent post flop game
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi,

      How often are you going to hit the Flop? If you do not hit, what is your line?

      Say you flop 7 T 6? What is your exact line?

      Given CO is a loose player, does this increase your implied odds or not? Can you explain to me using Equilab why it increases or decreases?
    • Castle93
      Castle93
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2011 Posts: 1,452
      To stop you there gerv, I've been reading verneers book that Roo lent me and I've just finished the chapter on facing a steal where there's abit on 3 betting from the blinds and I've changed on opinion on this completely, this is an easy 3bet spot. He showed his graphs from both calling from the blinds and 3 betting, and explained why 3 betting is so much better so ignore my old arguement :p

      However, against this villain, would this be a 3bet/fold spot against an unknowns 4betting range or?
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      in FR: yes but in 6max I think 3bet/folding AQs is not my style. I think they often get it in with 77+ making a shove with AQs more profitable

      You miss the Flop 68% of the time ( 1 - (44/50)(43/49)(42/48) = 1 - 473/700 )

      What is handy for you to do is exploring the mathematics of the deviations you want make. Like what can I flop? What is my equity? What is his range/

      This way you understand things better, it also makes it easier to play poker itself since you have done your homework and already know certain situations because you have studied these scenario's before

      Best regards,
      Gerv