[NL2-NL10] NL10: KT missed cBet

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1875432
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $8.00 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 17, 3B: 0, AF: 8,0, Hands: 42
      MP: $13.20 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 4,6, Hands: 180
      Hero (CO): $12.08 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 4,6, Hands: 57711
      BTN: $10.00 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 1,3, Hands: 175
      SB: $7.87 - VPIP: 38, PFR: 3, 3B: 0, AF: 0,6, FoldTocBetFlop: 54(13), Hands: 96
      BB: $10.00 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 17, 3B: 3, AF: 10,0, Hands: 184

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with T :diamond: K :heart:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

      Flop: ($0.70) 3 :heart: 4 :heart: 5 :club: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($0.70) Q :heart: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB calls $0.40

      River: ($1.50) 2 :club: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      I think that I have a rather clear cBet here on the flop since I have decent backdoor equity and I am doing reasonably well against villain's preflop calling range (~43%). So that's a mistake.

      1) As played though: does it make sense to try a stab on the turn? I think it should since we still can hit on the river + we can represent the Q well there.

      2) If we had a worse hand that still has a chance to hit on later streets but is doing considerably worse vs villain's preflop calling range (e.g. T9 – ~24%) would a cBet still be the correct play? It should be at the very least be a worse spot to cBet than when we have KT since we have to fold out a bigger part of villain's range with T9 for a cBet to be +EV.
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      Correct, rather CB the flop than the turn, if I'd Check behind then I'd also Check the turn instead betting. You have there vs him a lot less fold equity.

      2) If we had a worse hand that still has a chance to hit on later streets but is doing considerably worse vs villain's preflop calling range (e.g. T9 – ~24%) would a cBet still be the correct play? It should be at the very least be a worse spot to cBet than when we have KT since we have to fold out a bigger part of villain's range with T9 for a cBet to be +EV.

      Well, a lot worse which doesn't even have high card potential isn't very good to CB cause you get very often called here and are behind vs some high card.

      Best Regards.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      I played around in Equilab and noticed an interesting thing: if the flop was 5h6h7c (a seemingly minor difference) our equity actually is a lot smaller than in the first example: ~36% (on the 3h4h5c flop it was ~43%). Probably because villain still folds very low connectors such as 32 and 43, maybe 45, more often preflop than something like 67 and 87.

      That being said, would you still cBet a 5h6h7c board with 36% equity on the flop? I am asking mainly because in the T9 example we had ~24% equity and you said that that is no longer a good spot for a cBet. Or should I pay attention not only to our equity on the flop here but also on the fact that KT has more high card value (that obviously gives us more equity directly anyway, but apart from that % gain maybe another factor that favours KT is the fact that if we hit our T, it is not as often dominated as when we have T9?)?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      I played around in Equilab and noticed an interesting thing: if the flop was 5h6h7c (a seemingly minor difference) our equity actually is a lot smaller than in the first example: ~36% (on the 3h4h5c flop it was ~43%). Probably because villain still folds very low connectors such as 32 and 43, maybe 45, more often preflop than something like 67 and 87.

      That being said, would you still cBet a 5h6h7c board with 36% equity on the flop? I am asking mainly because in the T9 example we had ~24% equity and you said that that is no longer a good spot for a cBet. Or should I pay attention not only to our equity on the flop here but also on the fact that KT has more high card value (that obviously gives us more equity directly anyway, but apart from that % gain maybe another factor that favours KT is the fact that if we hit our T, it is not as often dominated as when we have T9?)?
      Well, then you have also backdoor SD in your hand, so yes we could still consider doing that.