[NL2-NL10] [NL10 SH ZOOM] - Bittersweet Deep Spot

    • StaticMoth
      StaticMoth
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      Hero (BTN): $14.38 (143.8 bb)
      SB: $14.95 (149.5 bb)
      BB: $10.61 (106.1 bb)
      UTG: $18.46 (184.6 bb)
      MP: $9.70 (97 bb)
      CO: $5.36 (53.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q A
      UTG calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.45, SB raises to $1.20, BB folds, UTG calls $1.10, Hero calls $0.75

      Flop: ($3.70) Q T 4 (3 players)
      SB bets $2.40, UTG folds, Hero calls $2.40

      Turn: ($8.50) 2 (2 players)
      SB bets $5.30, Hero ????


      Villain unknown

      a) ship coz we aren't planin on folding anyways and SPR is such that villain isn't folding anything either
      (except for pure bluffs, but those aren't bluffshoving the river most likely as it would be suicidal due to SPR)

      b) call with correct odds, assume the nittiest nutted QQ+ range for villain and fold blank rivers (even when we only need to be right 18% of the time and we don't know anything about villain)?

      c) make a sick nitty fold @turn (in which case we shouldn't play this in the first place? (which is often the case when getting 3bet vs unknown ... but having ultimate position, deepness and a fish in the hand ... are we REALLY ever folding this pre?)) ?




      I only like option A ... other options suck :f_biggrin:






  • 10 replies
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,901
      first let's assume that he's a typical reasonable nl10 player.

      in this case his 3betting range will tend towards strong hands being oop with a fish in the pot. still i think that preflop is fine because of deep+position as you said.

      on the flop, oop with the fish in this flop he'll also tend to be honest. this cbet+sizing looks value-ish to me. still yeah, we call because we have TPTK!!1, a good backdoor and position.

      now turn is interesting. you'll have like $5.50 in a ~$19 pot on the river...
      but by this point he's probably not bluffing. i do think that his range is QQ+, maybe also AQ, TT.
      against a QQ+ range we shouldn't ship because we get ~28% equity while we need like 11/30 (~37%), so we are pretty short. also like you said we probably can't count on fold equity for SPR reasons so not worth to ship it.

      since we contrivedly are needing pretty much 28% on a call, i'd go with it because i'm a station. however i'm folding pretty much any blank river if he ships.

      now what if he checks the river?
      i'm most likely checking behind because most likely he got scared with KK+ but in the end he'll talk himself into calling anyway.
      if it's an ace we may ship it for value since his most likely holding will be KK.
      if it's a queen or a diamond we ship it for value also (ldo) :f_biggrin:


      there we assumed that he's a "typical reasonable nl10 player".
      if he's not typical (too bad or too good) then other holdings he may also have are KJ, AK, QT. still i'd expect drawing hands to cbet smaller.
    • StaticMoth
      StaticMoth
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Yeap, agree with everything you mentioned =)

      That was my plan/how I played it/thought as well ... but I couldn't bring myself to folding on the river, hoping for some fishspazz :f_biggrin:


      Thanks for your input :f_thumbsup:
    • Spungeh
      Spungeh
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.06.2011 Posts: 1,212
      at c) Always play.

      [spoiler]
      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $8.74 (87.4 bb)
      SB: $24.47 (244.7 bb)
      BB: $9.37 (93.7 bb)
      UTG: $10 (100 bb)
      Hero (MP): $12.44 (124.4 bb)
      CO: $9.81 (98.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with A Q
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

      Flop: ($1.20) T K 3 (4 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.70, 2 folds, BB calls $0.70

      Turn: ($2.60) J (2 players)
      BB bets $1.60, Hero calls $1.60

      River: ($5.80) 7 (2 players)
      BB bets $3.30, Hero raises to $9.84 and is all-in, BB folds

      Results:
      $12.40 pot ($0.56 rake)
      Final Board: T K 3 J 7
      BB mucked and lost (-$5.90 net)
      Hero mucked A Q and won $11.84 ($5.94 net)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello StaticMoth,

      We can already take out option A, cause obviously we would be turning our hand into bluff there, whilst I doubt that you going to see much better hands folding here.

      Now lets talk about implied odds on the turn, cause that's what actually we should be talking about, shouldn't we? It doesn't really have much to do how much equity we have there cause it's more likely that the guy ain't bluffing with his sizing. I would assume more often the guy even CBs smaller with draws and weaker hands as well nor we don't have the assumptions that he is a maniac.

      Taken into account that he bets $5,30 into $8,50 pot which means if we take into account that all our 4 outs are clean means that we have to get from him $7,40 on the river to make it profitable (assuming he has a range which has us beat). Now taken into account that actually he will time to time also some up there with a set which would even discard some of our outs and even with just taking 1 out away we don't get the implied odds. Nor we don't get our FD implied odds unless we assume he is 2nd barreling there loose which means actually that we should be rather folding instead the turn. To sum it up, he doesn't have that much stack even left for us to be calling vs his sizing unless we assume being ahead or him having a loose 2nd barreling range.

      It doesn't really have to do much either we Call it preflop or not, it ain't forcing us to call down just cause we hit our TPTK. Our main plan in those spots is mainly to start to reevaluate our lines according the sizes and which we did. Means unless we give a weak range for him on the turn we ain't able to call it down and more likely the guy will have rather stronger range.

      Best Regards.
    • StaticMoth
      StaticMoth
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Fair enough, but I really don't get your implieds part.

      Assuming QQ+ range.

      His range consists of 1 combo QQ, 6 combos of KK, 3 combos AA

      So majority of his range (60%) is KK ... against we don't even need implieds
      We get correct immediate odds to call on the turn with our 14 outs.

      Vs the rest of his range we have 23,3% equity on the turn while needing 27,8%

      For that we need to make up with a bit implieds - needing to get about $3,71 if I didn't screw up my calculations, and that we definitely get on the river always.

      So while having correct immediate odds vs the majority of his range and correct implieds for the rest of his range ...

      Click call imo!?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      You clearly don't have every single card out for you. For example you can't count the Ace an out, whilst he it could easily improve his range also as AA or he could already have a set on the flop as QQ/TT and some combos of 44.

      You can't count all the FD outs as clean outs, cause T may also improve his FH range for example or even QUADs. So we actually should be discounting few outs of both the outs you are making clear as FD and also the overcard ain't clean + the Queen ain't clean. Which may in average would give us a break-even call if we also assume the guy is paying on the river.

      Also the equity you wrote which is needed = the equity which doesn't exclude rake, with rake you would need ~2% more equity if we are talking about equity. So conclusion you ain't really winning tons of money with your turn call, whilst could make several mistakes on the river though as for example hitting the ace and paying him off his shove whilst he ain't really going to shove a lot worse hands.

      Though you can pick whatever you prefer, I just pointed out my thoughts. :D If you think you going to earn profit with the play then sure, go for it.
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,901
      my thoughts:

      for nl10 44, QT, KJ are most likely not on his 3betting range (also because of the fish on the pot), maybe not even TT.

      if he shoves the river himself we should fold on almost every card.
      i'd personally call only on any (he is more weighted towards non-fh and our draw is very disguised), queens are closer because he is probably checking the river since our stationing range has so many Qx (but if he shoves i probably still call anyway...), and aces are definitely not clean.

      however when we hit one of these outs and he checks there is a big chance that we're ahead.
      i think it's worth a "call and reevaluate the river", not a huge +++EV call but... being a station is always more fun :D

      i feel that the main point is that being in position it's so much easier to realize our equity.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      So just cause it's NL10 you excluding all the range from him? :D You just can't do that, that would be practically the same as I would say I never see a guy 3betting 44 @ NL400 cause we have a fish and we are deep. That might be exactly the reason why the guy is 3betting he knows that you guys are deep and gets more money off you once he hits or either gets the fish to call with loose range -> TT easy 3bet for value vs the fish.

      Nor you can't exclude QT or KJ or 44 here and of course never TT. Where you actually could do that is on the turn whilst he is rarely going to 2nd barrel KJ and his draws this amount. Of course maybe small % of the time some guys may do but more often it would be smaller.

      Given equity on the turn for us:

      Board: Q:spade: T:club: 4:diamond:  2:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      UTG    25.00%  25.00%   0.00% { AdQd }
      UTG+1  75.00%  75.00%   0.00% { QQ+, TT, 4h4s, QTs, QTo }

      though the QT doesn't change the equity anyways for us nor does 1combo of 44. It will still be around 25%, which ain't correct "if we take into account the equity needed". Though I'd rather talk about implied odds here instead.
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,901
      well yeah, but we just have to make some assumptions on "limit dynamics".

      i am not excluding these hands, it's just that unknown nl10 player will def have them a smaller % of the time than if we were on higher limits, just as he has KJ and other possible random draws or even KQ a smaller % of the time by his postflop sizings.

      i think a fair representation is something like

      Board: Q:spade: T:club: 4:diamond:  2:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      BU     28.41%  28.41%   0.00% { AdQd }
      SB     71.59%  71.59%   0.00% { QQ+, TT, 4h4s, KdJd, QhTh, QcTc }

      still imo it's mostly about seeing a river in position and evaluating what happens, we have fine implied odds because of position, stacks remaining and disguised draw.
      the only really troublesome case is when the river is a queen and he shoves because we beat only KK+, probably a fold because he won't be betting them himself enough of the time.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      And you really want to say that hero is ever going to fold the river when he gets shoved when a Q or an Ace comes. From the sentences I doubt so = mistake already and to avoid that = fold the turn.

      Plus still the equity you pointed out, it's not enough, as we spoke we would need ~30% equity if we are talking about equity needed. :)