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[NL2-NL10] 55 steal - strong opponent line

    • AYuraoA
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 317
      Hi Gerv,

      we are standing against 30/13/3 AFa: 1 after 79 hands

      I played this hand in a sweat session with my poker buddy JohnDoe whom you probably well known from the evaluation forum.

      The opponnent ch/c Flop, Turn and then when flush hits he donks to us our AI. We both perceived this play as very strong and we firmly believe that we will see flush if we call. Also this guy has got very low aggression factor which supports this thory in my opinion.

      What do you think? I´ve got no other special reads about this guy.

      PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 7 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      UTG: $2.00
      UTG+1: $4.41
      MP: $5.57
      CO: $3.33
      Hero (BTN): $2.08
      SB: $2.44
      BB: $4.41

      SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has 5:spade: 5:club:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.20, fold, BB calls $0.15

      Flop: ($0.42, 2 players) 6:spade: K:heart: 5:heart:
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.33, BB calls $0.33

      Turn: ($1.08, 2 players) 8:diamond:
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.77, BB calls $0.77

      River: ($2.62, 2 players) J:heart:
      BB bets $1.00, fold

      BB wins $2.51
  • 2 replies
    • Castle93
      Joined: 06.06.2011 Posts: 1,458
      sick fold, really interested what gerv has to say, tbh i dont think im folding a set here for the pot odds im getting, but you make a very good arguement, the only issue i see here if most villains would notice that when yu bet 77c with only 78c behind he no way has the odds to draw to a flush, and surely with any value hand he just puts yu AL on the turn? weird line but yeahh 78c into $2.62, id pay him off.
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678

      There are a couple of things regarding this hand besides the River discussion.

      I think you can bet even bigger/near potsized on the Flop because he looks like a guy who doesn't care how much you bet on the Flop; if he has something, he is calling anyway.

      The Turn is a spot where you can contemplate overbetshoving. if Villain has Kx, no way he is folding. If he has a pair + flushdraw, I do not think he would lay it down. Only an overcard+flushdraw might feel he is beat but even then.. you overbetshove there! It looks so fishy :D

      as played the River you have 78c left in a pot of 3.4$ so you roughly get 4.x;1 which means he needs to be bluffing around 20%

      Now the first time I think I cannot fold a set here. I can fold 2pair or worse here because it obviously do not beat those hands as well if I had one

      Now it looks strong but mind you that some flushes are still checking to you because of 1) slowplaying & 2) they are simply to weak/afraid to bet out themselves

      - Gerv