[NL2-NL10] ep AJh flush bet sizing

    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Poker Stars $2.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      CO: $1.24 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: 1,0, Hands: 62
      BTN: $2.21 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 20, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 15
      SB: $1.07 - VPIP: 35, PFR: 9, 3B: 14, AF: 0,0, Hands: 23
      BB: $1.60 - VPIP: 46, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 1,3, Hands: 13
      Hero (UTG): $2.89 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 18, 3B: 8, AF: 2,6, Hands: 7396

      Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG with A :heart: J :heart:
      Hero raises to $0.08, 3 folds, BB calls $0.06

      Flop: ($0.17) 9 :heart: 9 :club: 6 :club: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.12, BB calls $0.12

      Turn: ($0.41) 8 :heart: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.30, BB calls $0.30

      River: ($1.01) 5 :heart: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.39

      1) If he has a 9 or flush or straight, he pays me anyway. If not, then will fold anyways. WRONG?
      2) Assuming we shove and want him to call, which makes it more likely to happen: a)pushing b)betting 1$ (hes almost AI, so its technically the same, but it still isnt a push from me. A push my seem too strong in a fish's eye, doesnt it?)
  • 5 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Imimba1,

      Check behind the turn cause you can't make many hands to fold there, especially if he is a loose player. Though the river is close but possible whilst he doesn't even have a full stack.

      Best Regards.
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello Imimba1,

      Check behind the turn cause you can't make many hands to fold there, especially if he is a loose player. Though the river is close but possible whilst he doesn't even have a full stack.

      Best Regards.
      On the turn, we need like 2% folding equity if we can get an 50% value bet hitting our flush on the river. It's pure math.
      We may even win with out overcards.

      He can fold his overcards, small pps, 6x etc hands. If he can fold hands which is better or hands which have equity and pay us up if we hit, then it's +EV to bet here. I think the river shove is +EV, with a 9 he calls it definetly.

      What do you think Veriz?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Imimba1
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello Imimba1,

      Check behind the turn cause you can't make many hands to fold there, especially if he is a loose player. Though the river is close but possible whilst he doesn't even have a full stack.

      Best Regards.
      On the turn, we need like 2% folding equity if we can get an 50% value bet hitting our flush on the river. It's pure math.
      We may even win with out overcards.

      He can fold his overcards, small pps, 6x etc hands. If he can fold hands which is better or hands which have equity and pay us up if we hit, then it's +EV to bet here. I think the river shove is +EV, with a 9 he calls it definetly.

      What do you think Veriz?
      Don't really know where you get the numbers, 2% fold equity... which of course is wrong. :P Well, vs overcards you are ahead, why would you even want him to fold those? Plus he could also have FH there against you just building up the pot from nowhere and then paying a lot more money on the river. That's what I think. :)
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Why would you 2nd barrel THIS, and not 2ndbarrel this flop?

      Almost same cards, similar board, loose opponent.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Imimba1
      Why would you 2nd barrel THIS, and not 2ndbarrel this flop?

      Almost same cards, similar board, loose opponent.
      First of all, I'd like to mention that you will rarely find hands which are connected the same way and similar. The same with those hands, they are totally different: different position, different board, different equity with the hand and also you ain't even drawing for the nuts in other hand. :P :f_frown: