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[NL20-NL50] Nl50Shz - Aa

    • axelphoney
      Joined: 03.10.2009 Posts: 2,397
      [converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $78.08 (156.2 bb)
      SB: $50 (100 bb)
      BB: $122.45 (244.9 bb)
      UTG: $50.75 (101.5 bb)
      Hero (MP): $60.39 (120.8 bb)
      CO: $54.18 (108.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with A:heart: A:club:
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.50, CO folds, BTN raises to $3.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $9.25, BTN calls $6

      Flop: ($19.25) K:club: 3:diamond: 8:heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $8, BTN calls $8

      Turn: ($35.25) J:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $14.25, BTN raises to $60.83 and is all-in, Hero calls $28.89 and is all-in

      River: ($121.53) 9:club: (2 players, 2 are all-in)

      Villain: 20/16 3bet: 6.5 (4.8k hands)
      WTSD: 30%
      AF: 2.0
      Raise Cbet in 3betted pot: 13% (38)
      Fold to turn Cbet: 50% (8) in 3betted pot.
      Fold to 4bet: 58.3%
      Call 4bet: 8.3%
      5bet: 36.4%

      I need 24% pot odds for this call to be break even.

      I doubt he would set mine against a 4bet, given that it would cost him 6$ to call, and we're only 60$ deep (would be moronic - but then again, you never know?)

      Against following range: AK, KK, JJ, 88, 33, my equity is: 33.71%

      It should be fair to include AK in this case right? Not sure why he wouldn't go broke though pre-flop, but who knows.
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello axelphoney,

      Will be tough to fold it anyways here whilst we can never exclude AK here. I'd play the same way, maybe the guy even calls with KQs or whatsoever, never know. :) At least gonna get a note from him with what he flats 4bets like that.

      What about his W$SD? When it's going to be high >55%, I might even towards leaving the pot alone on the turn.

      Best Regards.