[NL2-NL10] NL10: KQ TP going broke vs midstack

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1883627
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $9.83 - VPIP: 38, PFR: 38, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 8
      MP: $10.45 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 13, 3B: 8, AF: 1,0, Hands: 78
      CO: $11.60 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 16, 3B: 3, AF: 0,7, Hands: 97
      BTN: $12.03 - VPIP: 42, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 2,0, Hands: 31
      Hero (SB): $10.00 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 4,7, Hands: 64253
      BB: $4.00 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 17, 3B: 4, AF: 2,3, FoldTocBetFlop: 0(1), Hands: 64

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with K :heart: Q :heart:
      4 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BB calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.60) T :club: Q :club: 5 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.45, BB raises to $1.55, Hero raises to $9.70, BB calls $2.15 all in

      Turn: ($8.00) 4 :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      River: ($8.00) T :spade: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      Should be fine. He can still have QJ, FDs, SDs, maybe even Tx
  • 11 replies
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Hi Avatars91,

      I put in a range of what I would expect from a player like him. I think his 3bet percentage is usually going to end up being higher than it shows now (that's the base of mss).


      Board: T:club: Q:club: 5:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    46.97%  46.41%   0.56% { KhQh }
      MP3    53.03%  52.47%   0.56% { 55, KJs, QTs, AcJc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, KJo, QTo }



      From this as you can see your play is quite good vs his stack size.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      Pretty standard as long we are against mid-stack, ain't getting away unless I have good reason to do that.

      Best Regards.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      If we had QJ, could we then consider folding? Because then we are not doing as well vs his range since more of his TP hands dominate us.
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      If we had QJ, could we then consider folding? Because then we are not doing as well vs his range since more of his TP hands dominate us.

      Board: Q:club: T:club: 5:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    41.98%  41.36%   0.62% { QJs, QJo }
      MP3    58.02%  57.40%   0.62% { 55, KJs, QTs, AcJc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, KJo, QTo }



      As you can see our equity does not change much and this is kind of the worst case scenario. I still like a shove here.

      We are little better than BE in this case, we need at least 40.5% equity and we have almost 42%.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      If we had QJ, could we then consider folding? Because then we are not doing as well vs his range since more of his TP hands dominate us.
      What would make you more likely to fold QJ? We practically have a similar range beat there anyways. :) We are rather hoping him to have more kinda drawy-type of hand here not that we going to see tons of worse Qx hands.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Well, according to my calculations in equilab it is actually pretty close:


      Board: T:club: Q:club: 5:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    42.51%  39.97%   2.55% { QhJh }
      MP3    57.49%  54.94%   2.55% { TT, 55, AQs, KJs+, QTs+, J9s, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, AQo, KJo+, J9o }


      If we don't have the backdoor FD, it is even a fold, given that the range that I put in is realistic enough. I mean, take even out some of the FDs because he is not necessarily always raising with them and we are not doing all that well at all anymore.

      I mean, in some variations of villain's range + with us not having the backdoor FD we are actually doing very very bad:


      Board: T:club: Q:club: 5:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    32.48%  30.44%   2.05% { QdJh }
      MP3    67.52%  65.47%   2.05% { TT, 55, AQs, KJs+, QTs+, J9s, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac5c, AQo, KJo+ }


      Thus as much as I would still guess that it is tough to fold with KQ, especially with the backdoor FD, QJ (even with the backdoor FD, I would suppose) is not all that easy a decision to make here. Are my calculations off at any point?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Umm, don't really see any calculations. :P Nor those ranges ain't relevant, 1st one makes sense but 2nd one is missing a lot of hands which he could have played there. For example why would you threw out something like QJo from his range?

      If you really feel that he isn't raising that loose then sure we can Bet/Fold it, who even said that it's a must-go-broke spot? You still were playing with the guy not we, we don't know anything besides those few stats you posted. In the end still decides the one who plays on the table and how he saw the guy. :) My evaluation is based on the facts I assume to be true whilst I take him rather unknown.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Yes, it is quite difficult to correctly assess villain's range here as it is highly opponent-dependent + judging only from the stats we can't really tell much.

      But are my assigned ranges not relevant?

      2nd one is missing a lot of hands which he could have played there.


      I excluded QJ/KQ in the second one to see how we are doing if villain instead of pushing chooses to call with these hands (I mean, we can't say that villain is raising with these TP hands 100% of all times in this spot just judging from the stats that we have, can we?).
      Thus I would assume that depending on what his real range there could be like we can more or less state that our equity lies somewhere between ~32%–~42%, sometimes a bit more or less than this, but generally I think it is indeed in this area for the most time.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      Yes, it is quite difficult to correctly assess villain's range here as it is highly opponent-dependent + judging only from the stats we can't really tell much.

      But are my assigned ranges not relevant?

      2nd one is missing a lot of hands which he could have played there.


      I excluded QJ/KQ in the second one to see how we are doing if villain instead of pushing chooses to call with these hands (I mean, we can't say that villain is raising with these TP hands 100% of all times in this spot just judging from the stats that we have, can we?).
      Thus I would assume that depending on what his real range there could be like we can more or less state that our equity lies somewhere between ~32%–~42%, sometimes a bit more or less than this, but generally I think it is indeed in this area for the most time.
      It's not only about those few combos but overall hands which the guy actually could have there. So our equity is definitely much higher than you are pointing it out whilst you excluding too many combos from his range. Nor you wont see me saying that I am folding this unless I know the guy more. :)
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      It's not impossible for us to see even some random hand as well, is it? Or even JJ which he decided to raise because he didn't know how to play it or even something worse?
      Because if that is true, then my equity indeed goes up by quite a bit and I may very easily go broke with QJ here as well.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      It's not impossible for us to see even some random hand as well, is it? Or even JJ which he decided to raise because he didn't know how to play it or even something worse?
      Because if that is true, then my equity indeed goes up by quite a bit and I may very easily go broke with QJ here as well.
      You can't say that for sure but everything is possible, but JJ = similar to draws.