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[NL20-NL50] NL50SHZ - AJs

    • axelphoney
      Joined: 03.10.2009 Posts: 2,397
      [converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $57.44 (114.9 bb)
      SB: $30.82 (61.6 bb)
      BB: $50 (100 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $84.40 (168.8 bb)
      MP: $58.48 (117 bb)
      CO: $49.03 (98.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with J:club: A:club:
      Hero raises to $1.50, MP folds, CO calls $1.50, BTN folds, SB calls $1.25, BB folds

      Flop: ($5) 3:spade: 3:heart: K:club: (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $3, CO calls $3, SB calls $3

      Turn: ($14) Q:heart: (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

      River: ($14) A:spade: (3 players)
      SB bets $11.50, 2 folds

      CO: 22/0 (33 hands)
      SB: 22/13 3bet: 3.6 AF: 1.0 (249 hands)

      Alright I cbet, I figure it's a dry flop, doesn't hit them well, if I get one caller I will barrel most turns because I expect them to float flop with spp and fold turn.

      Both players calls, and I change my plan.

      The river hits an Ace - Usually I always call here, not sure why I didn't this time. It's just that it's 3-way and I expect him to always have something and with the flop I just can't think of what that is.

      I mean, I beat all kings except for AK, but then again those are less likely, more likely is QK, which I also beat.

      Would he float with AQ? (any weird 3s in his range, such as A3, K3, Q3?)

      thinking about this, I should probably have called since I only need to win 31% to break even. (lol what a nit I am?)

  • 6 replies
    • StaticMoth
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Need to be good 31% time to break even there.

      From his stack, looks to be a fishy player - so I click call.

      Floating with AQ OOP when there's a cbet and a call in front of him - would be quite ridiculously ambitious ... Ofc possible from a fish, but I can't rly think he has that almost ever. Maaaybe if it was AQs with a BDFD, but no such AQ combos exist on this board ....

      So if we give him A3s (only 1 combo) and 33 (also 1 combo) aand all KQs ... it's a snapcall with ~82% equity ...

      Lets say he always plays his AK this passively pre, so we include all AK combos in his range ... still we have 53% equity

      Ok, he's a fish ... heck, lets throw in all the A3o combos too, as fish like playing any ace usually ... Still we have 45% equity

      Want to get extra pessimistic? Give him all JTs that have BDFD ... Still 41% equity :tongue:

      Throw in all the other random aces combos as well which we split against ...

      Ez call vs random fishy looking guy imo.
    • axelphoney
      Joined: 03.10.2009 Posts: 2,397
      Yeah, I mean... wtf when did I become a nit?! ^^
    • bonecore
      Joined: 02.11.2009 Posts: 1,057
      1)he has AK and he flats flop because hopefully someone will bet turn so he can check/raise turn


      3)rarely he has QQ,KK,AQ

      4)he has KQ and is sad for not betting turn so he stabs the pot when A comes


      personally i think he has quads.. this is all i can think about
      and i dont hink he has A3 in that spot
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello axelphoney,

      Even if he doesn't have AQ in his range I am never-ever excluding AK here, especially with that kind of gap between VPIP/PFR = loose guy + 3bet = for us that he wouldn't be even 3betting AK type of hands very often but instead just calling. So I'd say his range is full of AK type of hands and meanwhile not many bluffs. Keep in mind he is doing the bluff into 2 guys + being passive, what do you hope to see there? I can't see much what we have beat, I'd fold it. Nice hand!

      Best Regards.
    • axelphoney
      Joined: 03.10.2009 Posts: 2,397
      but can you really exclude KQ? he might not even realise (if he's a fish) that a single ace beats KQ due to the 3s.
    • StaticMoth
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Didn't notice you posted his stats ...

      With 1.0 AF I'm liking a fold much more as well

      that being said ... In game I myself would prolly still look him up coz I'm a station and he's a fish :f_biggrin: