[NL2-NL10] NL10: J2 freeplay bad turn stab

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 1885773
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      CO: $12.76 - VPIP: 52, PFR: 6, 3B: 8, AF: 1,8, Hands: 48
      BTN: $10.00 - VPIP: 6, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 1,0, Hands: 18
      SB: $10.60 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 16, 3B: 3, AF: 0,7, Hands: 97
      Hero (BB): $10.96 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 4,7, Hands: 65799

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with J :heart: 2 :club:
      CO calls $0.10, 2 folds, Hero checks

      Flop: ($0.25) 3 :spade: 2 :diamond: 9 :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.17, CO calls $0.17

      Turn: ($0.59) K :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.40, CO calls $0.40

      River: ($1.39) 5 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks

      Not sure if the stab on the flop is not close. Could be doable on a drier flop with our pair + overcard but on this one we are a tad bit too behind vs his range. Definitely a check/fold on the turn though.
  • 4 replies
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      I think a guy like this is going to call you with most of his overcards and all pairs and flushes. For this reason and the fact that we have a hand with which we cant 2barel effectively I'd check on the flop.

      As played I agree with check folding turn.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Actually after messing around with some ranges in equilab I actually came to this result:


      Board: 3:spade: 2:diamond: 9:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    54.54%  54.51%   0.03% { Jh2c }
      MP3    45.46%  45.43%   0.03% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K3s+, Q3s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, AQo-A2o, K8o+, Q8o+, J9o+, T8o+, 98o, 87o, 76o }


      Of course, take some hands out and some in (villain's range may pretty much be unpredictable) and our equity changes a bit, but on average we actually are doing pretty well + we still can barrel on any 2, J and pretty much any non spade turn + villain still can float us on the flop with overcards, thus there is quite some value when he just folds to our turn 2nd barrel.

      If you don't agree, might I ask Veriz to take a look? Because I somehow very much have the feeling that this indeed is not a bad spot to take a stab with our equity + playability even.
    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Yeah np. I did not focus much on freeplay pots.

      From my experience fish like this don't fold too much when fd's and sd's are possible :) .
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      Stabbing the flop is still fine, though I don't like the 2nd barreling whilst most of his range got there and very narrow range what we have beat. Whatever range we even have beat on the turn will have decent equity against our hand.

      Best Regards.