[NL20-NL50] sh 20nl cbet even though my equity sucks

    • Verum
      Verum
      Black
      Joined: 07.03.2007 Posts: 1,309
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($20.10)
      BB ($20.98)
      Hero ($41.94)
      BTN ($20)

      Dealt to Hero 9:club: T:club:

      Hero raises to $0.60, fold, fold, BB calls $0.40

      FLOP ($1.30) A:club: Q:diamond: K:diamond:

      BB checks, Hero bets $0.80

      Villain:
      28/13 over 54 hands, but seemed reasonable so far.

      Flop:
      My assumption for his Range:
      TT-22,AJs-A8s,A5s-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AJo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
      my equity against it:
      27.3%

      required FEQ for immediate profit:
      38.1%


      Range that I think would continue to a bet:
      TT,AJs-A8s,A5s-A2s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,Td9d,9d8d,8d7d,7d6d,6d5d,AJo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+

      fold equity:
      37.6%

      playability:
      Since two pairs and sets are mostly 3betting hands, I expect him not to be x/raising much. My cbet also looks strong, since his range hits so hard. I think he has two sorts of lines, xc x x(or bet) and x/r. my bdfd should have some implieds, my straight not.

      Once he does x/c the flop his best hand should be AJ, while I can still hold all two pairs, straights sets. I do not believe that he thinks I will cbet light(which is true) and why my intention was to barrel thrice, in order to get even an Ace to fold, unless A T hits or the board pairs.

      I am really interested in feedback.

      thanks
  • 5 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Verum,

      Those calculations are good and fancy. :D Though I don't see how you can combine equity and fold equity. It doesn't really have much to do with that. Rather is the question how big part of his range is going to continue there and I'd say most of his calling range part is going to continue there and you actually don't have the fold equity you require overall.

      The only reason to CB here is that we have some backdoors, though if he is rather passive guy then I'd also just Check it behind and not waste even money here, you are rarely making even Qx hands to fold. I'd say ~80% of his range is going to continue here, so fold equity doesn't have much to do with it.

      Best Regards.
    • Verum
      Verum
      Black
      Joined: 07.03.2007 Posts: 1,309
      good point about him being passive and maybe checking it down with us.

      I didn't combine feq and eq I just wanted to point out that, because of our backdoors and the GS, we are not dead when we do get called. My assumptions were that, when I do not bet, I will most of the time face a turn bet, which will make me fold my equity, but when I do bet, I will get to the river vs hands, that would normally bet the turn, if I check back the flop. Therefore, my equity gets realized better by betting.

      I do not see how you come to the conclusion that he will call 80%. I did not give him a very loose range, given the type of player and I did not have him fold any Q, and still, I calculated 37.6% feq.

      Which of my assumptions is incorrect?

      Furthermore, when he does xc the flop, don't we have a great multi barreling situation?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Verum
      good point about him being passive and maybe checking it down with us.

      I didn't combine feq and eq I just wanted to point out that, because of our backdoors and the GS, we are not dead when we do get called. My assumptions were that, when I do not bet, I will most of the time face a turn bet, which will make me fold my equity, but when I do bet, I will get to the river vs hands, that would normally bet the turn, if I check back the flop. Therefore, my equity gets realized better by betting.

      I do not see how you come to the conclusion that he will call 80%. I did not give him a very loose range, given the type of player and I did not have him fold any Q, and still, I calculated 37.6% feq.

      Which of my assumptions is incorrect?

      Furthermore, when he does xc the flop, don't we have a great multi barreling situation?
      Well, I opened equilab and I'd say at least 70% of his range continues there so which means fold equity already ain't enough, though I'd assume it's more towards 75-80% which continues. Mainly you will see only PP range which folds and it's small part of his range.
    • Verum
      Verum
      Black
      Joined: 07.03.2007 Posts: 1,309
      could you post a range? because my range assumption must be WAY off.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Verum
      could you post a range? because my range assumption must be WAY off.
      Which range are we talking about? His flop calling range or preflop calling range? Both of your ranges you pointed out are pretty decent. But as said already that it's not that we are only hoping to gain fold equity here, cause we of course don't have that huge amount of fold equity. We are rather hoping to for the backdoors which come into handy here.