[NL20-NL50] SH 20nl, pair+ draw IPO in 3bp vs nit barrelling

    • Verum
      Verum
      Black
      Joined: 07.03.2007 Posts: 1,309
      Villain 200 hands:
      15/11 nit with 5% 3bet. All this 3bet % comes from the BB in which he averages 13% so far.

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($20.20)
      BB ($20.30)
      UTG ($23.43)
      UTG+1 ($9.60)
      CO ($14.08)
      Hero ($27.45)

      Dealt to Hero T:club: 9:club:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.20, fold, Hero raises to $0.80, fold, BB raises to $2, fold, Hero calls $1.20

      FLOP ($4.30) T:heart: 8:diamond: 6:spade:

      BB bets $2.15, Hero calls $2.15

      TURN ($8.60) T:heart: 8:diamond: 6:spade: J:heart:

      BB bets $4.60, Hero calls $4.60

      RIVER ($17.80) T:heart: 8:diamond: 6:spade: J:heart: 2:club:

      [color=red]BB bets $11.55 (AI)

      Called pre because of the odds, his 3bet from BB and him probabply not being the most tricky player.

      called flop because he might be a one barrel monkey in 3bps( has cbet both of the times his 3bet got called so far).

      on the turn I do not see him bluffing anymore, I doubt that he is going to be multibarrelling a hand like AK. I still have 28% vs TT+, AhKh, AhQh, AJs, KhQh; I need 26% for a profitable call. I do not believe that he will tripple barrel bluff me off my hand often, also, I believe that my implieds are higher thatn the loss incurred by folding on the river vs a worse hand and by calling when making trip and paying off a boat.

      River is a clear fold...

      Are my assumptions reasonable?
  • 5 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Verum,

      Well, lets ask a easy and simple question. Do you ever see him paying on the river when a 7 or Q comes? :) Especially as you said yourself we are against a nit? Cause obviously we would need from him his whole stack to play this profitable.

      Best Regards.
    • Verum
      Verum
      Black
      Joined: 07.03.2007 Posts: 1,309
      do you think he will x/f all of his sets when a Q or a 7 river?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Verum
      do you think he will x/f all of his sets when a Q or a 7 river?
      Well mate, I didn't play with the guy 200 hands. :D So I don't really know but I would assume that being very often true. And why do you put him only on sets? It's not really his whole range.
    • Verum
      Verum
      Black
      Joined: 07.03.2007 Posts: 1,309
      Originally posted by veriz

      Well mate, I didn't play with the guy 200 hands. And why do you put him only on sets? It's not really his whole range.
      first part is very true...and I do not put him on only sets, I am only saying, that sets are a part of his range that might pay me on the river.

      What I am trying to argue is that I have 24.4% equity...to be exact, vs TT+ and I need 25.84%, which means, that I am loosing 26 cents on the call, without him ever having anything worse than a set or an overpair. Do you not think I can bet 3 dollar on the river, or something else enticing and see a call from his sets?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Verum
      Originally posted by veriz

      Well mate, I didn't play with the guy 200 hands. And why do you put him only on sets? It's not really his whole range.
      first part is very true...and I do not put him on only sets, I am only saying, that sets are a part of his range that might pay me on the river.

      What I am trying to argue is that I have 24.4% equity...to be exact, vs TT+ and I need 25.84%, which means, that I am loosing 26 cents on the call, without him ever having anything worse than a set or an overpair. Do you not think I can bet 3 dollar on the river, or something else enticing and see a call from his sets?
      Depends of course what kind of range you are putting him on and according to that we can base our actions and I'd rather talk about implied odds here. Though if we assume that some part of his range is still behind vs our pair then sure we are able to Call it on the turn.