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[NL20-NL50] sh 20nl, loose passive defend in BB to keep fish in the hand

    • Verum
      Joined: 07.03.2007 Posts: 1,310
      villain is a standard tag, few hands...the limper is a 97/17 that can not find the fold button

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($22.98)
      Hero ($43.98)
      UTG ($38.93)
      CO ($16.55)
      BTN ($19.70)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: 7:diamond:

      fold, CO calls $0.20, BTN raises to $0.80, fold, Hero calls $0.60, CO calls $0.60

      FLOP ($2.50) 2:spade: J:diamond: 4:diamond:

      Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $1.87, Hero calls $1.87, CO folds

      TURN ($6.24) 2:spade: J:diamond: 4:diamond: A:heart:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $4.68, Hero calls $4.68

      RIVER ($15.60) 2:spade: J:diamond: 4:diamond: A:heart: 6:club:

      Hero checks

      called to play with the fish instead of 3betting, which was a valid option as well.

      expect some check throughs and maybe even a bet sizing tell from the reg if he does bet. Once Villain bets this size, I think his range is tilted a bit towards hands that actually have a pair than draws and pure bluff cbets. Out of these hands, I do not expect many folds to a x/r. I could be wrong about the sizing of course and he could be balanced. I call to keep the fish in the pot and because I do think that Villains range is a bit strong for a x/r on a board where I can't rep much.

      again...his bet size looks strong(2nd time hitting the 3/4 button). But since I expected him to have had a made hand on the flop, the only hands that have me beat are AJ, 22, 44, JJ. If my bet sizing read is wrong, he might just use the card for a second barrel and my equity should be somewhat good.

      even if it is only:
      JJ+, 22, 44, AJ, I still have 52%

      My question really is, what do I do when the river blanks and he bets? Should I call because a bunge of flush draws, A3, A5, KQ, QT,, KT bust...and I do not look like an ace or better...his bet sizing indicates a really strong range.
  • 2 replies
    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,015
      just believe him.

      i don't think that he is betting that big with KK-QQ (maybe give half combos) because the ace improves your range and he probably would be more inclined to just protect smaller and buy a sd. more towards nutted hands imo
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Verum,

      Check/Fold the river? :) Doubt that you going to see many bluffs there and draws? There ain't even many draws which he could be bluffing, so you are more often beat than level yourself into calling. He is also CBetting into fishy player which should give a sign him rather having a hand.

      Best Regards.