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[NL20-NL50] NL50SHZ - AJs*2

    • axelphoney
      axelphoney
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2009 Posts: 2,397
      [converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $75.56 (151.1 bb)
      SB: $236.19 (472.4 bb)
      Hero (BB): $108.74 (217.5 bb)
      UTG: $148.28 (296.6 bb)
      MP: $68.94 (137.9 bb)
      CO: $73.35 (146.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J:club: A:club:
      UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, MP calls $2

      Flop: ($5.25) 3:heart: J:diamond: 2:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $3, MP calls $3

      Turn: ($11.25) 6:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $8, MP calls $8

      River: ($27.25) 5:club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP bets $11, Hero folds

      Villain: 48/16 3bet: 11.3
      W$SD%: 44

      Since the flop is dry, I don't see him ever bluffing here, and I doubt he's capable of value betting jack thinly enough, but that's what I am not sure about.

      Any potential air, would've been draws, in this case straight draws that all make the straight by the river so I can pretty much exclude air.

      With such a wide range, he may have a few hands such as J3s, J4s, J5s, or other hands such as 33,22,66,55,44.

      I guess it's a fold, but it all depends on how thinly he's capable of value betting a single jack, that I don't know. I only need to win 3.48:1 (22%) so it's close imo, but not close enough.
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello axelphoney,

      Why not just Bet/Fold the river instead whilst the guy could easily have a lot worse hands in his range, I'd rather prefer doing that instead just Check/Fold.

      Best Regards.