[NL2-NL10] NL10: AKs 3Bet vs loosely calling tight regular

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1887742
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (BB): $10.00 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 4,7, Hands: 67293
      UTG: $4.50 - VPIP: 77, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 1,3, Hands: 13
      CO: $3.96 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 25, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 4
      BTN: $9.01 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 12, 3B: 7, AF: 1,7, Hands: 110
      SB: $10.00 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 15, 3B: 10, AF: 3,1, AFq: 38, PFRfromSB: 22, FoldTo3Bet: 44(16), Call3BetOOP: 80(5), FoldTocBetFlop: 18(11), FoldTocBet3BetFlop: 17(6), FoldTocBetTurn: 67(6), FoldTocBet3BetTurn: 75(4), 4Bet: 0(16), FoldTo4Bet: 30(10), Call4Bet:50(10), Call4BetIP: 50(2), Call4BetOOP: 50(8), WTS: 26, W$SD: 58, Hands: 1332

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with A :club: K :club:
      UTG calls $0.10, 2 folds, SB raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1.15, 1 fold, SB calls $0.85

      Flop: ($2.40) 7 :club: J :spade: 6 :diamond: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($2.40) 4 :spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($2.40) T :diamond: (2 players)
      SB bets $2.00, Hero folds

      On the flop I should have cBet even despite his low fold to cBet stat because against his preflop calling range, of course, depending on what kind of hands he prefers isolating with in this spot + what kind of hands he prefers calling with once 3Bet, we are actually not doing that bad equity wise:

      Example1:

      Board: 7:club: J:spade: 6:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    51.70%  48.81%   2.89% { AcKc }
      MP3    48.30%  45.40%   2.89% { 88+, A5s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }


      Example2:


      Board: 7:club: J:spade: 6:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    47.49%  44.95%   2.54% { AcKc }
      MP3    52.51%  49.96%   2.54% { 22+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }


      Not to mention, of course, our backdoor equity. + we can even barrel this guy easily off many hands on the turn as he seems to give up to 2nd barrels very often.

      A couple of questions about this particular villain as I have finally got a Reg with a decent sample size that I can analyze:

      1) What do I make of his non-existing 4Bet percentage? And low foldTo4Bet % + high call4Bet % even when being OOP?
      1.a. Regarding 4Bet: Does it mean that this guy always reacts to 3Bets passively (hence also why in the above mentioned equity calculations I included also AA/KK/QQ – since he basically never 4Bets anything at all.
      2.a. Regarding foldTo4Bet: What kind of a range can I expect from him once he 5Bets me or once he calls my 4Bet?

      2) Can I even not barrel any turn card vs his high fold to 2nd barrel stat + the fact that we even still have equity in the hand? We don't have to bet that big since this is a 3Bet pot, thus our cBet needs to work less often.

      3) Is such stat analysis even necessary to be able to better exploit this guy? Or should many of my questions have been answered by myself by paying more attention to this guy all these 1k hands? To put in other words: Methodically speaking, am I concentrating on the wrong elements in my development when asking such questions in such a way? Should I spend my analyzing time/game learning time better and in a more productive way?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      1) What do I make of his non-existing 4Bet percentage? And low foldTo4Bet % + high call4Bet % even when being OOP?

      That he is a loose player who doesn't like to fold to 3bets? :P

      1.a. Regarding 4Bet: Does it mean that this guy always reacts to 3Bets passively (hence also why in the above mentioned equity calculations I included also AA/KK/QQ – since he basically never 4Bets anything at all.
      2.a. Regarding foldTo4Bet: What kind of a range can I expect from him once he 5Bets me or once he calls my 4Bet?

      Well, 5bet might be mainly for value which is rather range which has you beat, so weaker hands he just calls and plays postflop.

      2) Can I even not barrel any turn card vs his high fold to 2nd barrel stat + the fact that we even still have equity in the hand? We don't have to bet that big since this is a 3Bet pot, thus our cBet needs to work less often.

      Nah, I would still do it for mainly free card for us than 2nd barrel it. Though this might be one of the opponents we could consider doing a 2nd barrel. Just in those spots without extra equity on the turn I don't see myself 2nd barreling.

      3) Is such stat analysis even necessary to be able to better exploit this guy? Or should many of my questions have been answered by myself by paying more attention to this guy all these 1k hands? To put in other words: Methodically speaking, am I concentrating on the wrong elements in my development when asking such questions in such a way? Should I spend my analyzing time/game learning time better and in a more productive way?

      If you have decent sample then sure you can analyze those stats but I would do that alone not that you post all those stats here. :P Just takes too long time and might be not worth the effort, cause you clearly have proven that you are able to analyze those situations. :)

      Best Regards.