[NL2-NL10] NL10: AA overpair funky spot

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1889033
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      SB: $6.10 - VPIP: 32, PFR: 14, 3B: 10, AF: 1,8, Hands: 44
      BB: $10.00 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 21, 3B: 3, AF: 3,4, Hands: 473
      Hero (UTG): $13.69 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 4,7, Hands: 67888
      MP: $13.35 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 20, 3B: 8, AF: 0,0, Hands: 55
      CO: $19.77 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 5, 3B: 3, AF: 2,1, Hands: 187
      BTN: $8.25 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 9, 3B: 4, AF: 0,0, Hands: 136

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with A :club: A :diamond:
      Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

      Flop: ($0.70) 4 :diamond: T :spade: 8 :diamond: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.54, SB calls $0.54

      Turn: ($1.78) 6 :diamond: (2 players)
      SB bets $0.20, Hero raises to $1.70, SB calls $1.50

      River: ($5.18) 4 :spade: (2 players)
      SB bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20

      Turn: I pretty much am raise/calling with my overpair + nut FD redraw, although very often I might be facing a rather strong hand with this line. I still didn't want to call and give him good odds for his potential draw + there is value vs overpairs, Tx, 1card FDs (not many hands in his range but possible with even pair+FD combos) and sometimes even worse pairs + SDs.

      River: I thought about it for a long time and I guess that the only benefit of calling is information. I'd be rather surprised to see villain using this line + betsizing with a full house or a flush + we now beat all two pairs, thus we can valuepush vs overpairs + Tx.

      Do you agree with my thought process?

      Another question: what would be the best line on the turn if we didn't have the nut redraw? Would you agree with raise/folding?
  • 5 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      If you had the plan to Raise/Call it on the turn then should also have the plan to ship on blank river instead of just calling. You have the same range beat on the turn & river and I'd even say bigger part we have beat on the river cause we also beat there 2pairs now.

      I'd rather be inclined to Raise/Fold the turn cause vs the range which decides to 3bet in those spots is going to be rather stronger hands and more trappy ones.

      Best Regards.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      I'd rather be inclined to Raise/Fold the turn cause vs the range which decides to 3bet in those spots is going to be rather stronger hands and more trappy ones.


      Are you referring to the case when we don't have the nut FD or maybe even when we do have the FD?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      I'd rather be inclined to Raise/Fold the turn cause vs the range which decides to 3bet in those spots is going to be rather stronger hands and more trappy ones.


      Are you referring to the case when we don't have the nut FD or maybe even when we do have the FD?
      Not really, for both. :P What do you think he would be min-betting and then 3betting with? :)
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      After some classic equilab-action I actually got these 2 potential scenarios:


      Board: 4:diamond: T:spade: 8:diamond:  6:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    19.87%  19.87%   0.00% { AdAc }
      MP3    80.13%  80.13%   0.00% { TT, 88, 44, T8s, 97s, 75s, AdKd, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad7d, Ad5d, Ad3d, Ad2d }



      Board: 4:diamond: T:spade: 8:diamond:  6:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    42.11%  42.11%   0.00% { AdAc }
      MP3    57.89%  57.89%   0.00% { JJ-TT, 88, 44, T8s, 97s, 75s, AdKd, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad7d, Ad5d, Ad3d, Ad2d, ATo }


      We need ~30% equity to call if villain pushes the turn. I could have even included only one non-monster medium strength hand and we'd be getting a bit over 31%. Thus the question here becomes – do we assume that once villain mindonk/pushes on the turn he has got a monster 100% of all times? Because if we even include just one overplayed pair hand, we are getting the odds to call with the nut redraw that we have.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Well, the 2nd range isn't really optimistic cause you definitely missing tons of flush combos which the guy could end up there and you wont really see AT hands there unless it's A:dTx but as you see you have yourself the A. :) Nor no need to put into equilab the range of A hands cause you have it. :P He is loose so he has tons of other flushes in his range.