[NL2-NL10] NL10: 77 bad donkbet?

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1889056
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $10.14 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 10, 3B: 8, AF: 0,0, Hands: 31
      CO: $4.35 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 28, 3B: 9, AF: 4,3, AFq: 42, CO_Steal: 20, CbetFlop: 89(9), cBetTurn: 67(3), WTS: 38, W$SD: 20, Hands: 158
      BTN: $18.47 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 19, 3B: 2, AF: 1,9, Hands: 140
      SB: $12.54 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 19, 3B: 8, AF: 4,0, CallOpen: 14(50), Hands: 158
      Hero (BB): $10.41 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 4,7, Hands: 67888

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with 7 :club: 7 :heart:
      1 fold, CO raises to $0.30, 1 fold, SB calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.90) 9 :heart: 5 :diamond: 9 :spade: (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, CO folds, SB folds

      Well, depending on the specifics of their ranges I very well may be the favourite in the hand on this board:


      Board: 9:heart: 5:diamond: 9:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    43.57%  43.01%   0.55% { 7h7c }
      MP3    31.54%  30.85%   0.69% { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
      CO     24.89%  24.02%   0.88% { TT-22, AJs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo, KQo }


      However, I really don't think any of these guys is capable of calling my donkbet with that many worse hands. My sizing probably should have been ~0.60$, as I would bet with stronger hands a similar amount and not just 0.50$, which might even induce the aggressive openraiser to make a move vs me.

      So, should I check? The openraiser, being so aggressive, might even decide to cBet with a wide range even on this 3way flop, which probably seems dry to him. However, if I check/call I likely am going to see a 2nd barrel very often.

      Does it leave me with only checking and hoping to check it down, or sometimes take a stab on a blank turn card?
  • 13 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      Nah, rather just lead it out and avoid Check behind there, though CO may CB but then it's more marginal for us to continue later streets vs his stack if he also likes to 2nd barrel. We are anyways very likely ahead so why not just Bet out and protect our hand.

      Best Regards.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Are we ever expecting to see calls from worse hands once we bet? If we don't does it make sense to bet?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      Are we ever expecting to see calls from worse hands once we bet? If we don't does it make sense to bet?
      Why would you want let them hit some overcards? If you are checking then it means you are giving up the hand on the turn? :)
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Yes, it's really not all that cool to give away free cards, I agree. However, once our bet gets called, our hand is basically crushed, is it not? I mean, of course we can bet since villains will probably fold very often, but then we are pretty much turning our hand into a bluff aren't we? And if we can bet with this hand in this spot, I suppose that we can pretty much bet with our entire range here, can't we? Because we are basically relying on our FE anyway.

      Or am I overestimating my fold equity, i.e., I may still very often see calls from overcards that are skeptical/want to float?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      Yes, it's really not all that cool to give away free cards, I agree. However, once our bet gets called, our hand is basically crushed, is it not? I mean, of course we can bet since villains will probably fold very often, but then we are pretty much turning our hand into a bluff aren't we? And if we can bet with this hand in this spot, I suppose that we can pretty much bet with our entire range here, can't we? Because we are basically relying on our FE anyway.

      Or am I overestimating my fold equity, i.e., I may still very often see calls from overcards that are skeptical/want to float?
      You can't say that, once you will start to see people even floating Ax hands there you will think it differently. :D
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      1) In that case, is my bet-sizing optimal? I guess I shouldn't go much higher if I want to see those floats from A high&co?

      2) Against better opponents it would, however, not be as good a bet, am I not right?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      1) In that case, is my bet-sizing optimal? I guess I shouldn't go much higher if I want to see those floats from A high&co?



      As always in poker, depends a lot on the player, can still be bet even bigger if we have specific information or assume opponent floating loose.

      2) Against better opponents it would, however, not be as good a bet, am I not right?
      What do you mean by better opponents? And why not? :P We still may avoid them Checking behind and hit an overcard or put ourselves into difficult spot with Check/Calling, it all DEPENDS.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      What do you mean by better opponents? And why not? We still may avoid them Checking behind and hit an overcard or put ourselves into difficult spot with Check/Calling, it all DEPENDS.


      Better = not floating with A high here but instead calling or raising with higher PPs/better hands only.

      Do we then bet with our entire range?

      It just seems logical that if we bet even vs such guys (as I described above) with the only aim of avoiding them checking behind and hitting their overcards and if it is a +EV bet, it makes sense to bet there with our whole range, does it not? If a bet with a PP whose profit comes from fold equity alone (since we expect to be crushed when called), then surely I can bet with all my QTs, JTs hands, and if for whatever reason I have even weaker hands in my preflop calling range, then with them as well.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Better = not floating with A high here but instead calling or raising with higher PPs/better hands only.

      Still don't understand you. Instead of calling or raising? Do you mean raising instead of calling?

      Do we then bet with our entire range?

      Why would you Bet your entire range here, on a board as 959? Could you please explain me? :f_biggrin: I mean why would you donk out something like JTs?
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      By better opponents (in the context of this flop) I mean opponents that wouldn't float with A high. Could name them simply "looser" instead of "better" as well.

      Why would you Bet your entire range here, on a board as 959? Could you please explain me? fish biggrin I mean why would you donk out something like JTs?


      If I bet 77 on this board and don't expect to get called by worse, the value in the hand comes from fold equity, does it not? Thus I can bet ATC, since it does not even matter what I have. That is, of course, a hypothetical situation, as in this particular case we still might get floated by some overs such as A high or smthn.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      By better opponents (in the context of this flop) I mean opponents that wouldn't float with A high. Could name them simply "looser" instead of "better" as well.

      Why would you Bet your entire range here, on a board as 959? Could you please explain me? fish biggrin I mean why would you donk out something like JTs?


      If I bet 77 on this board and don't expect to get called by worse, the value in the hand comes from fold equity, does it not? Thus I can bet ATC, since it does not even matter what I have. That is, of course, a hypothetical situation, as in this particular case we still might get floated by some overs such as A high or smthn.
      You have more equity with your 77 than you do with ATC, that's the point and if you be even very likely ahead then why not just take down the pot right there? :)
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      You have more equity with your 77 than you do with ATC


      Does it matter in such situations vs opponents that won't call with worse than 77 anyway? We still have only 2 outs for a full house.
      Maybe I misused the term ATC, as what I meant was my whole preflop overcalling range, which includes many gutshot or 2 overcard combos most of the time on this flop. ATC such as 32o on this flop is not what I meant :) since that is not even in my preflop range.
      That said, it should be so that vs such opponents, if we can bet 77, we ought to be able to bet gutshots and overcards as well. Can that not be done?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      You have more equity with your 77 than you do with ATC


      Does it matter in such situations vs opponents that won't call with worse than 77 anyway? We still have only 2 outs for a full house.
      Maybe I misused the term ATC, as what I meant was my whole preflop overcalling range, which includes many gutshot or 2 overcard combos most of the time on this flop. ATC such as 32o on this flop is not what I meant :) since that is not even in my preflop range.
      That said, it should be so that vs such opponents, if we can bet 77, we ought to be able to bet gutshots and overcards as well. Can that not be done?
      Well it does matter obviously, you never know if they are calling with ace high or not and of course even worse PPs. :)