Can this be blamed on variance?

    • GitGud
      GitGud
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      Joined: 09.05.2012 Posts: 50


      All the games were $0.15 + $0.01 sngs.

      I'm expecting some answers like "sample is too short to talk about variance".
      Well, I just wanna know if such a downfall can be blamed (mostly) on me or if other factors were the major forces behind this.

      I take this chance to ask y'all about which other poker rooms have sngs with buy-ins as low as these. I know about iPoker and Everest. I'd like to know about others.
  • 9 replies
    • caartman94
      caartman94
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      Joined: 31.12.2011 Posts: 122
      So you complain about loosing 1.5$ ?:D
      That's cool
    • GitGud
      GitGud
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      Joined: 09.05.2012 Posts: 50
      Inbred, it's not about the money. It's about knowing if I'm doing things right and improvement.
    • Jimanyjerk
      Jimanyjerk
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      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 366
      Have had similar swings myself, it definitely is too small of a sample size to say if it's variance, bad play, a ghost, or anything in between. That's your actual profit though right? Do you know or can you find out your EV ROI or luck adjusted winnings, that does help a bit in figuring out what's going on. I've only grinded 500 sng's since I've started, and I've had a 45 BI down-swing in one 80 game stretch, my graph looked just like yours, though I was running really poorly and when luck adjusted math was looked at, I should only have lost 1/3rd of that.

      Have you read this article?

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/sng/1072/5/

      Some of the statistics are sobering, or comforting. Either you realise how rough SNG play can apparently be, or you take solace in the fact that it's not uncommon to have a stock-market crash 1930s depression style graph once in a while :D

      The site I am playing on, betfair, is part of the ongame network, and they seem to have quite a bit of traffic on the "rookie sng holdem games" which have an 10+1 cent buyin. I can't comment on the quality though.

      Hope it swings back up for you, I have felt the pain my friend.

      G.
    • GitGud
      GitGud
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      Joined: 09.05.2012 Posts: 50
      Originally posted by Jimanyjerk
      That's your actual profit though right? Do you know or can you find out your EV ROI or luck adjusted winnings, that does help a bit in figuring out what's going on.
      My ROI since I starded playing this sngs is 6% and my profit is $2.79.

      How can I find out about luck adjusted winnings?

      Thanks for the reply.
    • Jimanyjerk
      Jimanyjerk
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      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 366
      All depends on what program you are using, I don't recognize what you used to make your graph so I can't help you there.

      It's probably not too important though if your graph is moving upwards for the most part :) again it's generally not a perfect reflection of whether it's bad play or bad luck. If you run kings into aces 100 times in a row, your EV will look terrible but in truth it would certainly be variance. Similarly if you are making tons of terrible ICM plays but keep on getting called by hands that are weaker, your EV line will sky-rocket even though you are making objectively poor plays and should probably be losing. It takes a larger sample size for any real conclusions to be drawn.

      Just focus on playing your Ace game and you'll ride out the storm.

      Good luck!

      G.

      *edit, felling spail
    • Gavron23
      Gavron23
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      Joined: 26.05.2010 Posts: 2,863
      Its what you said in your own post - sample is faaaar far away from being anything close to big enough for conclusions......
    • dogma18
      dogma18
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      Joined: 08.12.2009 Posts: 340
      Well done on having the motivation to play 0.15c games.. Im 18 tabling the 0.25c 45 mans on Pokerstars to build a roll from nothing and its killing me X(

      You are down 30 buyins over the last 50 games which isn't too unreasonable but because standard of play at this level is so bad you must be making a lot of simple mistakes. Have you read books on sngs??

      Mainly players at this level will be stacking off light so playing tight is usually best throughout..of course open up as blind levels increase, steal from the button and small blind.

      If you give me your name on topshark, I could look at finish distributions and that might indicate which stage of the sng is your weakest. Maybe 100 games isn't a great sample size but its better than nothing
    • noz03
      noz03
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      Joined: 07.03.2012 Posts: 129
      I had about 60% ROI on my last 30 games until I just lost about 10 in a row tonight... it happens, dont worry about it so much. Just stick to your br plan and you will push through it, I move down a level for a few games to until I feel Im picking up again, limits the loss.
    • clydePHP
      clydePHP
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      Joined: 02.03.2011 Posts: 322
      you may be in a downswing. :)