[NL2-NL10] NL10: AJ cold call vs CO openraise

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1889925
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (SB): $10.00 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 4,7, Hands: 68372
      BB: $6.47 - VPIP: 59, PFR: 24, 3B: 25, AF: 0,0, Hands: 17
      UTG: $15.87 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 6, 3B: 6, AF: 0,0, Hands: 52
      MP: $10.00 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 19, 3B: 7, AF: 0,0, Hands: 81
      CO: $10.45 - VPIP: 32, PFR: 29, 3B: 12, AF: 3,4, AFq: 37, cBetFlop: 51(37), CO_Steal: 37, FoldTo3Bet: 50(12), Hands: 299
      BTN: $4.00 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 27, 3B: 17, AF: 0,5, Hands: 22

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with A :spade: J :diamond:
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.25, 1 fold

      Flop: ($0.70) 7 :diamond: 4 :heart: 2 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks

      Turn: ($0.70) T :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.50, CO calls $0.50

      River: ($1.70) 9 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks

      I don't like 3Betting here because I am not really sure he is calling wide enough for my AJ to be ahead of his range + we are OOP + he seems to be loose and seems to be taking a weaker range to the showdown overall, thus we have little fold equity postflop.

      Therefore I just call and play against his whole range preflop.

      Keeping in mind the fact that he does not seem to be cBetting all that much I suppose I am just folding if he cBets this flop, although I would call, if his cBet % was higher.

      As played: I suppose it makes sense to take a stab on the turn given that he has not shown interest in the pot + we have 2 overs + we even may get value from 1crd FDs.
  • 7 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Hi,

      AJ is ahead against 32/29 player and even if you don´t get called by worse hands it is better to 3-bet to force out BB and build nice aggressive image.

      If you lead turn I think you need to lead river 1.2$. If he does not have there flush, he would fold better hands and your hand looks a lot like flushdraw or pair+flushdraw if you bet out turn

      best regards,
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      AJ is ahead against 32/29 player and even if you don´t get called by worse hands it is better to 3-bet to force out BB and build nice aggressive image.


      I suppose that vs this kind of a guy it is OK to 3Bet AJ only if we assume to have fold equity postflop. Sadly I didn't include his foldTocBet stats and it is difficult to find the hand now, but surely a 3Bet here is not that great an option if villain does not fold to cBets, because:


             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    46.66%  41.81%   4.85% { AJo }
      MP3    53.34%  48.48%   4.85% { 99+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, ATo+, KQo }


      Even vs a relatively loose calling range we are not really ahead and we have to make up for this equity by either fold equity postflop or, if he's loose, by our edge/him being bad, which we have to realize through valuebetting our made hands, hoping to get a lot of calls with worse. Keeping in mind also that we are OOP + we are sometimes dominated by better Ax hands and we will not know whether we can valuebet our Ax TP, this is not exactly that clear a 3Bet, in my opinion. If villain is either folding a lot postflop or bad enough for us to get paid off quite a bit once we hit, then I agree, of course. But since I have not included a lot of information about the guy, I think the safest and best option is still calling and keeping his range wide.

      Although thinking about it again, we still have fold equity preflop + the aggressive image is an added benefit (though not to be overvalued, IMO), 3Betting wouldn't be all that bad. It's just that then I would pretty much prefer knowing how loose villain is postflop and whether or not we can valuebet our TP when the Ace appears.

      If you lead turn I think you need to lead river 1.2$. If he does not have there flush, he would fold better hands and your hand looks a lot like flushdraw or pair+flushdraw if you bet out turn


      If villain checks behind this flop in order to call this particular turn, doesn't his hand very much look like Tx or a FD? Tx folds on river, but a FD does not.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      Check/Fold the turn without even having any equity in your hand there. Not worth taking stabs. :) Nor doesn't make sense to take stabs on the river cause his range will have a lot of FDs.

      Best Regards.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      If villain's flop cBet was higher (~70%+), could we check/call this board? If not one with a possible FD, then maybe a rainbow one?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Avatars91
      If villain's flop cBet was higher (~70%+), could we check/call this board? If not one with a possible FD, then maybe a rainbow one?
      Try to open equilab and test it out. :) Put opponent on CO and then far amount what kind of CBetting range he could have there and see how you doing with your hand.
    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Even if villain cBets his whole range on the flop we are not that far ahead:


      Board: 7:diamond: 4:heart: 2:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    55.74%  54.05%   1.69% { AsJd }
      MP3    44.26%  42.57%   1.69% { 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A9o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o }


      Of course, his openraising range may be a bit different, but overall the result should be just about the same.

      Even if villain's cBet stat would be ~70% it's difficult to tell if this is the kind of a board on which he would ever cBet with air (because if it is, then he probably is cBetting with his whole range anyway) + if I am the kind of an opponent vs whom he would do it. I also don't know how often he 2nd barrels + I am OOP. That said I think that even if villain's cBet was higher it is a tough call to make on an FD flop.

      On a rainbow one:


      Board: 7:diamond: 4:heart: 2:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    58.45%  56.66%   1.78% { AsJd }
      MP3    41.55%  39.77%   1.78% { 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A9o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o }


      It becomes sort of doable and it may be considered, provided that villain also cBets a lot + doesn't 2nd barrel.

      Please, correct me if a part of my analysis is flawed!
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      That's not really just about the flop play, you must realize poker is always about "IT DEPENDS", according to that we also base our play-style either to float, raise, donk etc. Anything can be picked here dependent on what information we have. With just knowing that he CBs flop 70%, I can NEVER-EVER give you correct play what you play in the future every time you see.