[NL2-NL10] NL10: JTs flush lay down vs river reg minraise

    • Avatars91
      Avatars91
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1893203
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      MP: $10.00 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 7, AF: 0,5, Hands: 48
      CO: $33.83 - VPIP: 31, PFR: 15, 3B: 3, AF: 1,0, Hands: 81
      BTN: $10.19 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 1,0, AFq: 13, WTS: 25, W$SD: 100, Hands: 74
      Hero (SB): $10.76 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 4,7, Hands: 68937
      BB: $12.58 - VPIP: 48, PFR: 2, 3B: 0, AF: 3,9, WTS: 14, W$SD: 33, Hands: 93
      UTG: $10.00 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 75

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with J :club: T :club:
      1 fold, MP raises to $0.35, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.35, Hero calls $0.30, BB calls $0.25

      Flop: ($1.40) J :diamond: 4 :club: 9 :club: (4 players)
      Hero bets $1.00, BB folds, MP folds, BTN calls $1

      Turn: ($3.40) 6 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      River: ($3.40) 3 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.00, BTN raises to $4, Hero folds

      Villain has check/called with AJ overcards as PFA OOP SBvsBB on the flop, checked turn and checked for bluff induce on the river once he catches his TP with an ace. Thus we can pretty much assume that he is somewhat passive.
      That said, can I ever call there on the river? I pretty much think that villain can only have a flush on the river the way the hand got played and since he seems like a pretty passive and not at all that bluff-happy guy. I also am not sure if this very tight guy ever cold calls SCs in that spot preflop. However, if he had the nut flush, or even the 2nd nut flush he maybe would have pushed instead of minraising. And in fact, I would expect him to 3Bet AKs preflop, so the only hands that really beat me and makes sense is AcQc and KcQc and even that he maybe 3Bets AQs preflop. So, a very narrow range beats me but there shouldn't be all that many hands that I beat either. For the given odds may be a call?

      Also a few questions about my betsizes – does it make sense to bet a bit more on the flop vs BB's loose range? We have so much equity vs his calling range + even other player's ranges. Say, ~$1.15?

      And given that I am vs the tight guy on the river, what kind of betsizing would you suggest there? I maybe could have even bet smaller in order not to make him fold his better Jx hands or even QQ (if he suddenly decides not to 3Bet it preflop given that he likes bluffcatching postflop)?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      You can't really fold for the given odds once you hit there your flush, did you see that? :f_biggrin:

      There ain't really huge difference either how much you Bet on the flop nor river (mainly try to gain some value and pick such a sizing which he may call you also looser). :)

      Best Regards.