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[NL2-NL10] NL10: K2s potential BU open vs SB loose guy?

    • Avatars91
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1893564
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $16.22 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 7, AF: 0,5, Hands: 48
      MP: $3.85 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 14, 3B: 11, AF: 2,8, Hands: 525
      CO: $13.80 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 1,0, Hands: 74
      Hero (BTN): $10.00 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 5, AF: 4,7, Hands: 68937
      SB: $19.80 - VPIP: 48, PFR: 2, 3B: 0, AF: 3,9, AFq: 39, DonkbetFlop: 44(9), RaiseCbetTurn: 67(3), FoldTocBetFlop: 43(7), FoldTocBetTurn: 0(3), WTS: 14, W$SD: 33, Hands: 93
      BB: $10.00 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, FoldBBtoSteal: 80(5), Hands: 75

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with 2 :club: K :club:
      5 folds

      I did not open the hand because we still have a rather small sample to state that BB is extremely tight and folds to steals very very often (although he does seem like that) + SB seems to be loose postflop + sometimes he can also show some aggression, however, can this still not be an open?

             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    43.23%  42.04%   1.18% { K2s }
      MP3    56.77%  55.59%   1.18% { JJ-22, A2s+, K6s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, A2o+, K8o+, Q8o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o }

      We are not doing all that bad vs his potential calling range (of course, add some hands, take some away) + we have position + we have a skill advantage. We can get 2 streets of value from our K top pair vs all his midpairs + draws, true, sometimes we're dominated, but we are folding to a lot of action anyway + are not vBetting our 1 pair on the river most likely; we also can make him fold on some dry flops; we can get paid off big with our nut flush if we hit it + sometimes villain may play his draws passively and we can check after getting called on the flop and maybe even win a showdown with K high.

      Though villain seems to have a donkbet range, I am very keen on discovering what kind of hands he is donking with because that will probably tell me something about his check/calling range as well so I don't mind him not always checking to me as I can often raise vs his donkbet with some backdoors and at the very worst see what he is donking with @ showdown.
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Avatars91,

      Well you have still position so why not to raise it and play vs the loose guy. :) We should still have implied odds and once again putting him on a range ain't really clever cause you don't really know what kind of range he can show up in those spots.

      Best Regards.