KQ TP in UTG vs MP nit

    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      I thought double suited board so I bet, at the back of my head I thought AK. Probably overplayed this hand hard. Villain is 20/16

      I gave him a pre-flop range of something like 66-QQ, AJs/AQs, AK, KQs, JTs. It seems that I only have 54% equity vs his calling range of TT+ and flushdraws.

      Poker Stars $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1894866
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $294.22
      SB: $233.04
      BB: $229.58
      Hero (UTG): $264.20
      MP: $305.02
      CO: $203.00

      Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG with Q:spade: K:heart:
      Hero raises to $6, MP calls $6, 4 folds

      Flop: ($15.00) K:diamond: 6:club: 5:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $10.02, MP calls $10.02

      Turn: ($35.04) 5:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $22.00, MP calls $22

      River: ($79.04) T:heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP bets $33.00, Hero calls $33

      Final Pot: $145.04
      Hero mucks Q:spade: K:heart:
      MP shows A:heart: K:spade:
      MP wins $142.24
      (Rake: $2.80)

      Should I check/call Flop? Or just bet Flop and c/f Turn? When I check my Turn equity vs his Turn betting range, it looks something like

      Equity Win Tie - Kd 6c 5c
      MP2 45.28% 42.48% 2.80% QQ-TT, 66, AKs, KQs, AcQc, AcJc, JcTc, AKo
      MP3 54.72% 51.93% 2.80% KhQs

      Equity Win Tie - Kd 6c 5c 5d
      MP2 76.79% 74.84% 1.95% 66, AKs, AcQc, AcJc, JcTc, AKo
      MP3 23.21% 21.27% 1.95% KhQs
  • 3 replies
    • lnternet
      Joined: 19.06.2012 Posts: 782
      maybe you can check his MP cold call and 3bet stat to get a better read on his flatting range preflop?

      What is the table dynamic like? Which player is the spot? Is there a lot of nits?

      Here it is just crucial to know what his preflop range is exactly. If he calls QJs A4s 33 preflop your hand is a monster on the flop, if he folds 88/KJs and 3bets TT/AQ, only calling with JJ/AQs/AK then it is looking much more dim.

      Flop cbet should be still a value bet regardless. Maybe you could change your sizing, just make it $9 or $8 to force more calls so the value is better.

      Turn cbet is usually still good. However, if his range is tight, maybe you have to check.

      River I agree with checking. He bets only $33? That is a bit strange.

      For value I think he would bet bigger with TT or 66. With KK it might make sense to bet that size. With AK or AA I would think he bets a bit bigger, but maybe not.

      As a bluff, I don't think he would turn 88 99 JJ into a bluff for such a small sizing. So if he is bluffing it must be a busted flush draw, AQs/AJs with flopped or turned flushdraws. Maybe QJcc or 87s if he calls that preflop.

      He might maybe bet a chop like that so I think you are priced in unless he is an extremely nitty player who would check back AJ:club: :club: here and bet that size with TT.
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      20/15/4.4 - sample isn't too huge at 150 hands
      Call Open from MP = 1 out of 4 times
      Overall Call Open is 10% over 70 hands but sample mostly includes blinds

      BB is a very aggressive regular, rest are solid TAGs. At the same time I don't think such nits are paying too much attention to such details, he'll probably just flat AK cos 3betting would be overplaying to him I think.
    • imfromsweden007
      Joined: 11.10.2008 Posts: 726
      meh you played it fine. Not a great fan of betting this big on the flop, as part of a balanced strategy I just bet smaller with my entire range.