[NL2-NL10] AK: Planned to go broke with 2P

    • kiromanAAKK
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      I have 3bet him because Im OOP ...

      but would be better just call, keep all the crap in his range and play a small pot OOP if called?

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
      SB ($1.20)
      Hero ($2.15)
      UTG ($2)
      CO ($8.29)
      BTN ($5.25)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: T:club:

      fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.08, fold, Hero raises to $0.22, BTN calls $0.14

      FLOP ($0.45) T:heart: K:club: A:spade:

      Hero bets $0.34, BTN calls $0.34

      TURN ($1.13) T:heart: K:club: A:spade: 7:heart:

      Hero bets $0.84, BTN calls $0.84

      RIVER ($2.81) T:heart: K:club: A:spade: 7:heart: 8:heart:

      Hero bets $0.75 (AI), BTN calls $0.75

      to be honest, I post this hand because Im not so sure if was the case to play differently here

      maybe I can just c/c the river?
      or maybe c/f the river?

      villain is 79/53 with 83% of steal

      so, doesn't necessary mean he got AK there but may be a flush close but my planned hand was to go broke by the river (by give a small change of flush in his range really almost hope for a worst Ace there) and I have tried to manipulate the pot threw the streets to allowed me to go broke on the river (any river at that point)

      I still believe I got more to beat in his range than be beaten

      Combonator Output combonator.com
      Board: T :heart: K :club: A :spade:
      Vs Hero Cards: A :heart: T :club:
      Combinations in complete range: 256 [Hero Eq: 78.15%]
      [b]  Grouped[/b]:  256 combos, 100.0% [Hero Eq: 78.15%]
      [b]Ungrouped[/b]:    0 combos,   0.0% [Hero Eq: 0.0%]
        [b]Group 1[/b]:  229 combos, 89.5% (89.5% total) [Hero Eq: 85.70%]
        [b]Group 2[/b]:   27 combos, 10.5% (10.5% total) [Hero Eq: 14.10%]
      [b]Group 1[/b]: Hand equal or worse than hero
      QQ-JJ, 99-22, AQs-A2s, AQo-A2o, K7s+, KTo+, QTs-Q9s, QTo, J9s+,
      JTo, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s
      [b]Group 2[/b]: Hand equal or better than hero
      KK+, TT, AKs, AKo, QJs, QJo

      ofc, as said I will not considerate now the possibility of flushes even if the % of that happening is relevantly high if I think more deeply

      TY :)
  • 2 replies
    • kiromanAAKK
      Joined: 08.10.2009 Posts: 4,022
      What about the math there?

      I have pot odds of 4.7:1 (17%)

      with an equity needed to make the river bet (AI) of 21%
      the fold equity (even if irrelevant at that point I believe he will not fold anything) is 26%

      but the EV is -0.75

      even if Im almost committed to the pot by now (can I say that?)

      TY :)
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello kiromanAAKK,

      Why would you Check/Call the river? If he has a hand then whatever weaker hand is going to Check behind, there ain't many missed draws. Vs such a loose station just ship it there on the river instead anything else.

      Also 3bet it 3x at least. :) Not according your hand strength. :P And what should be asked if we even have fold equity vs that guy?

      Best Regards.