[NL2-NL10] AKo against squeeze

    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,868
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $51 (204 bb)
      SB: $25 (100 bb)
      Hero (BB): $14.82 (59.3 bb)
      UTG+1: $17.57 (70.3 bb)
      UTG+2: $20.83 (83.3 bb)
      MP1: $26.46 (105.8 bb)
      MP2: $41.51 (166 bb)
      MP3: $25.02 (100.1 bb)
      CO: $27.07 (108.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A K
      3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.75, MP3 folds, CO calls $0.75, BTN raises to $2.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $14.82 and is all-in, 2 folds, BTN calls $12.07

      Flop: ($31.24) 4 K 7 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      Turn: ($31.24) 2 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($31.24) 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Results:
      $31.24 pot ($1.41 rake)
      Final Board: 4 K 7 2 8
      BTN showed A A and won $29.83 ($15.01 net)
      Hero showed A K and lost (-$14.82 net)


      21/13/40 3bet 7.7

      88+,AJs+,AJo+(87 combo)
      fold TT-88,AQs-AJs,AQo-AJo(47)
      call JJ+,AKs,AKo(40) equity 16%

      so 2.3$-(14.5-(30*16%)*40/87=-2.21..

      So fold was better than shove. Is call considerable?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      I think your calculations seem to be weird and probably wrong

      BTN is not necessarily squeezing a merged range (he could squeeze a hand like T7s for example, as opposed to always having 88 or AJ).

      Anyway if he folds half the time, you win 4.25
      If he calls with JJ+/AK half the time, we have 40% equity. we are putting in 15$ preflop and we get back 40% X 31$ on average which is 12.4.
      We lose 15-12.4 = 2.6$ on average.

      Overall EV = 0.5 (4.25) + 0.5 (-2.6) = +$0.825

      I think this is a very standard shove. And you are looking at the overall 3bet % of 7.7%. I think it should be higher in BU, maybe 8-10% or even higher. But even if he has 8% range, 3% of hands = JJ+/AK and other 5% = air. So he should actually be folding like 62.5% of the time and calling 37.5% of the time.

      Overall EV = 0.625 (4.25) + 0.375 (-2.6) = >$1
    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,868
      now my equilab said I had 40% equity.
      It seems careless misstake..

      anyway, my plan was not bad :f_biggrin:
    • ctstc
      ctstc
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2009 Posts: 6,280
      With that Stats I would shove, too. When BU 3bets not very tight, or MP2 is a very very tight Player, i ship AK here always.