This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

[NL2-NL10] AKo against squeeze

    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,877
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $51 (204 bb)
      SB: $25 (100 bb)
      Hero (BB): $14.82 (59.3 bb)
      UTG+1: $17.57 (70.3 bb)
      UTG+2: $20.83 (83.3 bb)
      MP1: $26.46 (105.8 bb)
      MP2: $41.51 (166 bb)
      MP3: $25.02 (100.1 bb)
      CO: $27.07 (108.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A K
      3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.75, MP3 folds, CO calls $0.75, BTN raises to $2.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $14.82 and is all-in, 2 folds, BTN calls $12.07

      Flop: ($31.24) 4 K 7 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      Turn: ($31.24) 2 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($31.24) 8 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Results:
      $31.24 pot ($1.41 rake)
      Final Board: 4 K 7 2 8
      BTN showed A A and won $29.83 ($15.01 net)
      Hero showed A K and lost (-$14.82 net)


      21/13/40 3bet 7.7

      88+,AJs+,AJo+(87 combo)
      fold TT-88,AQs-AJs,AQo-AJo(47)
      call JJ+,AKs,AKo(40) equity 16%

      so 2.3$-(14.5-(30*16%)*40/87=-2.21..

      So fold was better than shove. Is call considerable?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      I think your calculations seem to be weird and probably wrong

      BTN is not necessarily squeezing a merged range (he could squeeze a hand like T7s for example, as opposed to always having 88 or AJ).

      Anyway if he folds half the time, you win 4.25
      If he calls with JJ+/AK half the time, we have 40% equity. we are putting in 15$ preflop and we get back 40% X 31$ on average which is 12.4.
      We lose 15-12.4 = 2.6$ on average.

      Overall EV = 0.5 (4.25) + 0.5 (-2.6) = +$0.825

      I think this is a very standard shove. And you are looking at the overall 3bet % of 7.7%. I think it should be higher in BU, maybe 8-10% or even higher. But even if he has 8% range, 3% of hands = JJ+/AK and other 5% = air. So he should actually be folding like 62.5% of the time and calling 37.5% of the time.

      Overall EV = 0.625 (4.25) + 0.375 (-2.6) = >$1
    • Gonchan
      Gonchan
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,877
      now my equilab said I had 40% equity.
      It seems careless misstake..

      anyway, my plan was not bad :f_biggrin:
    • ctstc
      ctstc
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2009 Posts: 6,280
      With that Stats I would shove, too. When BU 3bets not very tight, or MP2 is a very very tight Player, i ship AK here always.