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[NL2-NL10] QQ over pair on wet board

    • Gonchan
      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,877
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $12.50 (50 bb)
      SB: $27.79 (111.2 bb)
      BB: $13 (52 bb)
      UTG+1: $15.01 (60 bb)
      Hero (UTG+2): $12.50 (50 bb)
      MP1: $12.50 (50 bb)
      MP2: $66.30 (265.2 bb)
      MP3: $23.75 (95 bb)
      CO: $12.50 (50 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q Q
      UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 3 folds, CO calls $0.75, 3 folds

      Flop: ($1.85) J 4 4 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.06, CO calls $1.06

      Turn: ($3.97) 3 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.75, CO calls $2.75

      River: ($9.47) A (2 players)
      Hero bets $7.94 and is all-in, CO calls $7.94 and is all-in

      $25.35 pot ($1.14 rake)
      Final Board: J 4 4 3 A
      Hero showed Q Q and lost (-$12.50 net)
      CO showed J A and won $24.21 ($11.71 net)

      Flop turn seems standard.

      I think his calling range is

      If against this range, I had 24% equity.
      So, check/fold would be fine?
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      I definitely think you cannot bet the River. Question is whether you c/c or c/f. I c/f if he has a tight range like you mentioned. I c/c if he has way more speculative hands like suited stuff. I think given that you are half stacking we must discount suited connectors and small pocket pairs by a huge extent.

      if he shoves river you get 32% pot odds so see if you have 32% equity vs his range and call if you do.
    • ctstc
      Joined: 09.11.2009 Posts: 6,280
      i think you will not have enough FE and Equity to push on the River against this Villain.
      It would be helpful to know his River AF and how much he bluffs, but I think your Samplesize is too low for that specific Stats.

      But a question to your calling Range: What do you think he folds on the River? You have 24% Equity against the calling Range you gave him, maybe it is enough.