150bb deep with fish in squeeze pot

    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Poker Stars $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1897628
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $349.82
      SB: $302.17
      BB: $186.77
      UTG: $108.96
      Hero (MP): $899.88
      CO: $975.58

      Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is MP with Q:heart: Q:club:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $6, CO calls $6, BTN raises to $22, 2 folds, Hero calls $16, CO calls $16

      Flop: ($69.00) 6:spade: J:spade: 7:diamond: (3 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $32.00, Hero calls $32, CO folds

      Turn: ($133.00) 4:club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $84.00, Hero calls $84

      River: ($301.00) 8:heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $211.82, Hero calls $211.82

      BU: 26/19/6.7, 10% overall squeeze, 3bet % from BU = 7%, 59/58/40 Flop Turn River barrel
      CO: 40/16, seems to be slightly on the loose calling station side.

      I think BU's squeezing range should be heavily weighted towards broadways and monsters.

      My hand looks mostly like QQ and AJs. I think he would definitely 3barrel all his busted flushdraws especially on that river card but at the same time I don't think he has too many flush draws in the first place.

      Getting 29% on the River, but equity seems terrible against his range.

      Equity Win Tie - Js6s7d 4c 8h
      MP2 86.11% 83.33% 2.78% JJ+, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, KsJs
      MP3 13.89% 11.11% 2.78% QQ

      Seems like a fold to me but I'm not sure whether to fold Turn (seems weak) or fold River. Maybe I'm not taking into account stuff like AKo and AQo but he seems conservative in his flop cbetting, and given that there's a station fish in the hand on the Flop I think his bluffing range is going to be really narrow (perhaps something like AsK or AsQ but probably not AxKx)

      Of course there's the option of 4betting but he folds 58% to 4bets and I haven't been getting into any dynamics vs him this session + I rather let the fish come in the hand so I think sticking the money pre seems to be bad at 150bb
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