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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 66 set on ugly board oop

    • duder1n0
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,335
      Prima No-Limit Hold'em, €0.50 BB (4 handed)

      Button (€53.60)
      SB (€49.01)
      BB (€151.34)
      Hero (UTG) (€50)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6, 6
      Hero bets €1.50, Button calls €1.50, 2 folds

      Flop: (€3.75) 10, K, 6 (2 players)
      Hero bets €2.75, Button calls €2.75

      Turn: (€9.25) 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets €7, Button calls €7

      River: (€23.25) J (2 players)
      Hero bets €12.50, 1 fold

      Total pot: €23.25

      Anon table.

      BTN 31/16

      River? I thought there is value in bet/folding against fish, he could herocall with some 2pair combos...
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      He could (probably would). But does he have more straights or 2p combos. I think if you took the time to calculate the number of combos, you'll find that he has a Queen more often than not. Maybe he has QX less than 40% of the time.

      But in order to justify a river value bet, you need his CALLING RANGE to lose to your set >50% of the time. I don't think that's the case. He has more QX than 2 pairs.

      Thus you cannot value bet the River. So we evaluate our other 2 options of c/c and c/f. Our hand is obviously way too strong to fold and flush draws missed so easy c/c.
    • duder1n0
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,335
      Hey, thanks! Really appreciate your vids btw... :)

      I didnt took the time to calcute to be honest, but here it is:

      Possible range of BTN after calling turn:

      After me betting river:
      - raises/calls with better (straights): 35/75 combos (0.47)
      - calls with better (sets): 6/75 combos (0.08)
      - calls with worse (twopairs): 18/75 combos (0.24)
      - folds: 16/75 combos (0.21)

      EV of river vbet/fold:
      (12.50€ * 0.24) - (12.50€ * (0.47 + 0.08)) = -3.88€

      So yes, it's probably a -EV bet...

      On the other hand, if we assume that he would rather call turn with pair+FD/combodraw type of hands instead of just flushdraws like 5:d4 (cant be sure though), then ch/fold would be better, because he would checkbehind his busted draws with showdown value (9:d8/A:dJ/etc).
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello pcfmcc02,

      Agree that there ain't many hands which pay us on the river. But is it really only about that? We don't know the opponent and if we face a huge Bet on the river? We obviously have to fold and maybe even the best hand. Which means the idea of betting the river is also in sense of block-betting and avoiding him bluffing against us with missed draws. So I like the play, nice hand!

      Best Regards.