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[NL20-NL50] AA 3 bet faceing flop shove

    • dzikson999
      Joined: 17.08.2010 Posts: 532
      PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      UTG: $34.20
      CO: $25.45
      BTN: $34.07
      Hero (SB): $25.00
      BB: $42.42

      Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has A:heart: A:club:

      UTG calls $0.25, fold, BTN raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.75, fold, fold, BTN calls $2.00

      Flop: ($6.00, 2 players) 9:diamond: 6:heart: T:club:
      Hero bets $3.43, BTN raises to $31.32 and is all-in, Hero calls $18.82 and is all-in

      Turn: ($50.50, 2 players) K:club:

      River: ($50.50, 2 players) 6:spade:

      Villain plays 24/12, fold to 3 bet 92%,ag f- 2.4 on flop ag f -3,Wtsd 32 % w&sd 58 %, 250 hands
      Board: 9d6hTc
      Equity Win Tie
      BU 38.70% 38.16% 0.54% { QQ-99 }
      SB 61.30% 60.76% 0.54% { AhAc }
      I give him following range so i guess i have to call ?!
  • 3 replies
    • PokerPro
      Joined: 29.01.2005 Posts: 72
      Hey dzikson99,

      I would call as well because of this.

      250hands are not that much of a sample size. That is why I would not see the stats as a true fact. But I think we should assume villian folds much to 3bets 70-80%.

      If villian opens 35% on the buttom and folds 80% minus his expected 4bet range AK,AA,KK villian should still have a 7-8%range. So maybe we can add QJs in is range from time to time maybe with 3-4 combinations.

      We loose against 99,66,TT = 3x3 =9combinations
      We win against JJ,QQ, and sometimes maybe even KK = 12-18 combinations

      The question is does villian play JJ,QQ overshove flop? KK for sure. Against unkown I would call the flop because we beat many overpairs and thats why I think we have the 36,6% equity we need to call the flop.
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      AA in 3bet pot 100BB = never folding on 98% of board runouts.

      If the board is very good for villain's range, i will consider taking passive lines instead to keep his range wide.

      For example when I bet this board against someone who usually 4bets JJ+ preflop and calls many mid pairs, against his Flop raising range we aren't doing too well since we will be facing T9s/sets really often. Sometimes 77/88 perhaps but who knows?

      By checking we induce bluffs from stuff like AQ/AJs/KQs/AK. We also don't have to be good so often when bluff catching (need to win only ~30-35% of the time) as opposed to betting (need a worse hand to call 50%+ of the time).

      With that said, this is probably a bet/shove for me at lower limits. I see people flat QQ/JJ here so often and then just raise their overpairs on the Flop. Seeing 77/88 here is quite standard for this limit as well. So yes, I think bet/call is the best plan here. Nice hand.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello dzikson999,

      Nah, it's difficult to get away whilst the guy is also not the best playing 24/12 which tells us that he has a lot of worse hands in his range and can easily overplay JJ/QQ. Nice hand!

      Best Regards.